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Myles Allen is Professor of Geosystem Science in the Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford. His research focuses on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to climate change and risks of extreme weather. At a workshop in 2005, Allen introduced the notion of a finite carbon budget, implying net zero emissions of carbon dioxide are necessary to halt global warming. He has been working on the implications ever since, most recently on the case for Geological Net Zero, or a balance between ongoing production of carbon dioxide from geological sources with carbon dioxide capture and geological storage. He has served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, most recently as a Coordinating Lead Author on the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. He was awarded the Appleton Medal and Prize from the Institute of Physics “for his important contributions to the detection and attribution of human influence on climate and quantifying uncertainty in climate predictions" featured on the BBC’s Life Scientific as “the physicist behind net-zero” was awarded a CBE “for services to climate change attribution, prediction and net zero” and is a Fellow of the Royal Society.

Research

  • Research Cluster coordinator: Climate, School of Geography and the Environment.
  • Head of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (AOPP), Department of Physics, University of Oxford. Responsible for climate modelling and attribution, comprising on average 4 post-docs and 5 doctoral students over the past three years.
  • Director, Oxford Net Zero, a 4-year interdisciplinary research initiative to inform effective and ambitious climate action among those setting net zero targets in institutions and governments across the globe, comprising 5.5 research and 3.5 policy engagement and administrative positions
  • Principal Investigator, www.climateprediction.net - distributed computing for global climate research", collaborative project (2000 present, overall budget c. £4m), performing large-scale Monte Carlo simulation of climate change 1900 - 2100 using idle CPU on personal computers volunteered by the general public.
  • Coordinating Lead Author, Chapter 1, “Framing and Context”, and member of Summary for Policymakers core writing team, IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, 2016-2018
  • Lead Author, Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes, Chapter 12 of the IPCC WG1 Third Assessment. Review Editor, "Global Climate Projections" Chapter 10 of the IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment. Lead author, "Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional", Chapter 10 of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment.
  • Member of the US NOAA/Dept of Energy International Advisory Group on the Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

Publications

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

  • Allen, M., Frame, D., Frieler, K., Hare, W., Huntingford, C., Jones, C., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N. and Raper, S. (2009) The exit strategy Nature Reports Climate Change, 5.
  • Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J. and Mason, C.F. (2009) The case for mandatory sequestration. Nature Geoscience, 2(12): 813-814.
  • Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M. and Meinshausen, N. (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne Nature, 458: 1163-1166.
  • Lambert, F.H. and Allen, M.R. (2009) Are changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget? Journal of Climate, 22(3): 499-517.
  • Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S.C.B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C Nature, 458: 1158-1162.
  • Stone, D.A., Allen, M.R., Stott, P.A., Pall, P., Min, S.K., Nozawa, T. and Yukimoto, S. (2009) The Detection and Attribution of Human Influence on Climate*. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34: 1-16.

2008

2007

  • Allen, M.R. and Frame, D.J. (2007) Call off the quest Science, 318(5850): 582-583.
  • Allen, M.R., Pall, P., Stone, D.A., Scott, P., Frame, D.J., Min, S-K., Nozawa, T. and Yukimoto, S. (2007) Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm to human influence on climate. Pennsylvania Law Review,, 155(6): 1353-1400.
  • Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M. and Allen, M.R. (2007) Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857): 1971-1992.
  • Pall, P., Allen, M.R. and Stone, D.A. (2007) Testing the Clausius--Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO 2 warming. Climate Dynamics, 28(4): 351-363.
  • Piani, C., Sanderson, B., Giorgi, F., Frame, D.J., Christensen, C. and Allen, M.R. (2007) Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand, multimodel ensemble of simulations Journal of Geophysical Research, 112(D2408).

2006

  • Allen, M., Andronova, N., Booth, B., Dessai, S., Frame, D., Forest, C., Gregory, J., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R. and Piani, C. (2006) Observational constraints on climate sensitivity. Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press. 281-290.
  • Knutti, R., Meehl, G.A., Allen, M.R. and Stainforth, D.A. (2006) Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19(17): 4224-4233.
  • Lopez, A., Tebaldi, C., New, M., Stainforth, D., Allen, M. and Kettleborough, J. (2006) Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. Journal of climate, 19(19): 4785-4796.
  • Massey, N., Aina, T., Allen, M., Christensen, C., Frame, D., Goodman, D., Kettleborough, J., Martin, A., Pascoe, S. and Stainforth, D. (2006) Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences, 8: 49-56.
  • Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J. and Piani, C. (2006) Risks associated with stabilisation scenarios and uncertainty in regional and global climate change impacts. Avoiding dangerous climate change Schellnhuber H.-J, Cramer W, Nakiccnovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G.W: 315-320.

2005

  • Piani, C., Frame, D.J., Stainforth, D.A. and Allen, M.R. (2005) Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(23).
  • Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J.M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J. and Allen, M.R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases Nature, 433: 403-406.

2004

  • Lambert, F.H., Stott, P.A., Allen, M.R. and Palmer, M.A. (2004) Detection and attribution of changes in 20th century land precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(10).
  • Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A. and Allen, M.R. (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017): 610-614.

2003

  • Allen, M. (2003) Liability for climate change. Nature, 421(6926): 891-892.

2002

  • Allen, M.R. and Ingram, W.J. (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419(6903): 224-232.
  • Allen, M.R., Kettleborough, J.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2002) Model error in weather and climate forecasting. ECMWF Predictability of Weather and Climate Seminar.
  • Allen, M.R., Stott, P.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Schnur, R. and Delworth, T.L. (2002) Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations Science, 295: 113-117.

2000

1999

  • Allen, M.R. and Tett, S.F.B. (1999) Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Climate Dynamics, 15(6): 419-434.
  • Tett, S.F.B., Stott, P.A., Allen, M.R., Ingram, W.J. and Mitchell, J.F.B. (1999) Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature, 399(6736): 569-572.