In addition to peer-reviewed journal articles, the ECI team publishes reports and policy briefs to provide timely public access to results emerging from our research, to promote discussion and to inform debate.

Integrating Physical Climate Risks and Adaptation into Sovereign Credit Ratings: Implications for Financial Stability and Fiscal Policy at the Sovereign-bank Nexus.

Mark Bernhofen, Matt Burke, Akaraseth Puranasamriddhi, Nicola Ranger, and Gireesh Shrimali

Resilience & development
September 2024

Climate change poses significant risks to financial stability, particularly through its impact on sovereign credit ratings, which determine borrowing costs and influence investor confidence. This discussion paper explores the sovereign-bank nexus, showing how physical climate-related financial risks and adaptation measures are currently undervalued by credit rating agencies. Using a more granular risk assessment approach, incorporating insurance catastrophe models, the paper demonstrates that the potential impacts of climate change on sovereign credit ratings are greater than previously estimated. However, these impacts can be significantly mitigated through investment in adaptation, as demonstrated in a case study on flood risks in Thailand. By incorporating acute climate risks and adaptation into credit rating methodologies, governments and financial institutions can reduce fiscal risk and improve capital costs. The paper advocates for the integration of "adaptation smart" ratings to incentivise adaptation investments and improve global financial stability.

Enhancing the Missing Middle: Pathways to scaling the value chain for British-grown beans

Katie Jones and Julian Cottee

Food systems
September 2024

The report highlights the potential impacts of investment to boost the production and consumption of UK bean. These include a more sustainable and profitable agricultural system and healthier diets with a lower environmental impact.  The authors outline three pathways for upscaling, examining each pathways barriers, enablers and outcomes. It also highlights which food system actors could pursue these routes.

Harnessing AI to Assess Corporate Adaptation Plans on Alignment With Climate Adaptation and Resilience Goals

Roberto Spacey Martin, Nicola Ranger, Tobias Schimanski, Markus Leippold

Resilience & development
June 2024

The extent to which firms are adapting to climate change and building resilience to climate and nature-related risks is vital information for financial institutions, regulators and governments. Yet currently no framework or tool exists to assess corporate adaptation and resilience alignment and there is little guidance available for firms to improve disclosure. We propose a new Adaptation Alignment Assessment Framework (A3F) to analyse corporate adaptation and resilience progress. We combine the framework with a natural language processing model and provide an example application to the Nature Action 100 companies. The pilot application demonstrates that corporate reporting on climate adaptation and resilience needs to be improved and implies that progress on adaptation alignment is limited. Further, we find that firms are already reporting on environmental impact but integration of nature-related risks and dependencies is low, suggesting further engagement is needed with the Taskforce for Nature-Related Disclosures. In general, the paper demonstrates the feasibility and practicality of assessing large swathes of corporate reporting through AI to gain insights on company resilience alignment.

The (In)coherence of Adaptation Taxonomies

Roberto Spacey Martin, Dr Nicola Ranger, Kit England

Resilience & development
June 2024

Adaptation taxonomies are a key tool in the sustainable finance toolkit, creating clarity and coherence around what constitutes an adaptation-aligned investment. Twenty-four adaptation taxonomies have been published in the last 4 years, forcing us to ask the question: clarity or chaos? We compare these taxonomies based on their underlying principles, definitions of adaptation and sector coverage, and reveal major differences.

Where next for SMEs and net zero?

Hampton, S. Eadson, W. Blundel, R, and Sugar, K

Energy
June 2024

This report addresses the question where next for SMEs and net zero?, It provides insights from a comprehensive review of policies and business support initiatives across England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, as well as interviews with 83 governance stakeholders acting at the national, regional and local levels and 30 interviews with SMEs.

Assessing the Materiality of Nature-Related Financial Risks for the UK

Dr Nicola Ranger, Prof Tom Oliver, e.a.

Resilience & development
April 2024

The deterioration of the UK’s natural environment could lead to an estimated 12% loss to GDP, according to new analysis. In comparison, the financial crisis of 2008 took around 5% off the value of the UK GDP, while the Covid-19 pandemic cost the UK up to 11% of its GDP in 2020. The UK is one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world – three quarters of the UK has a high level of ecosystem degradation, with risks to financial services and the wider economy as a result. The analysis shows however, that half of the UK’s nature-related financial risks originate overseas. Within the analysis, a new inventory charts these domestic and international nature-related risks to the economy, many of which are not currently captured in national risk assessments. The inventory captures financial risks arising from the deterioration of nature and biodiversity, including: soil health decline; water shortages; global food security repercussions; zoonotic diseases that pass from animals to humans, like bird flu, swine flu, and Covid-19; and antimicrobial resistance, where bacteria and viruses no longer respond to medicines; as well as transition and litigation risks.

Seven principles of place-based net zero policy for SMEs

Eadson, W. Hampton, S. Sugar, K, Blundel, R and Northall, P

Energy
April 2024

This report sets out seven principles of place-based net-zero policy for SMEs. Setting place-based action within context of national, international, and sector action on climate change, the report provides assessment of where place-based action can provide most added value, and address limitations in existing provision.

What next for adaptation finance?

Dr Nicola Ranger, Cath Bremer

Resilience & development
December 2023

This brief sets out how the pursuit of climate security for all can drive opportunities for adaptation finance – the next generation of green finance – and where markets can lead, and governments can accelerate action, focusing on the UK as a case in point. A new approach to public policy and an investment plan to match is required. This entails a systems-change approach to ensure economies and communities can be resilient to the impacts of the climate change that we are already experiencing. This focus on resilience must not be delivered as an alternative to driving economy-wide decarbonisation. Both are needed, and by taking a dual track approach, climate security can be delivered for citizens.

Financing Nature-Based Solutions for Adaptation at Scale: Learning from Specialised Investment Managers and Nature Funds

Dorian van Raalte, Dr Nicola Ranger

Resilience & development
December 2023

This report, completed by the Resilient Planet Finance Lab at the ECI, reviews the status of nature finance globally, to learn from the role played by nature-focused funds and their investment managers, understand what works, and draw conclusions for how we might mobilise more financing for nature-based solutions for adaptation. Our focus is on exploring opportunities to overcome the barriers that hold back finance and action for NbS at scale. This knowledge will inform a roadmap and toolkit for identifying viable investment modalities in Bangladesh.

The green scorpion: the macro-criticality of nature for finance

Dr Nicola Ranger, Dr Jimena Alvarez, Dr Anna Freeman, Dr Thomas Harwood, Prof Michael Obersteiner, Estelle Paulus, Juan Sabuco

Resilience & development
December 2023

New study reveals in excess of 5 Trillion USD in nature-related risks to the global economy that will amplify the impacts of climate change. Shocks to the global economy related to biodiversity loss and ecosystem damage could cost upwards of five trillion USD. Human activities, such as pollution, deforestation, land-use change and overextraction, are fundamentally eroding the natural capital upon which are societies and economies are built – including our water, clean air, fertile soils and pollinators – and act as ‘risk amplifiers’ on the impacts of climate change. Study by the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

Finding the fuel poor and framing better policy – summary

Jason Palmer, Nicola Terry, Tina Fawcett and Brenda Boardman

Energy
August 2023

Energy prices in the UK continue to be very high, and in the absence of Government help, millions of households will struggle without adequate energy for heating, hot water, cooking and other vital services. This report uses data from smart-enabled prepayment meter customers to explore how the Government can best target support to those in greatest need, and to describe the minimum level of support needed to prevent serious suffering this coming winter.

Finding the fuel poor and framing better policy – full report

Jason Palmer, Nicola Terry, Tina Fawcett and Brenda Boardman

Energy
August 2023

Energy prices in the UK continue to be very high, and in the absence of Government help, millions of households will struggle without adequate energy for heating, hot water, cooking and other vital services. This report uses data from smart-enabled prepayment meter customers to explore how the Government can best target support to those in greatest need, and to describe the minimum level of support needed to prevent serious suffering this coming winter.

Putting beans on the plate: Analysis of UK demand and supply of beans and plant-based proteins

Will Nicholson and Katie Jones

Food systems
June 2023

This report describes UK demand and supply of plant-based alternatives to meat, for human consumption, and the role of beans. The aim is to provide a better understanding of the current and potential future demand for, and supply of, beans and how this fits into a broader shift to plant-based foods.

Energy Superhub Oxford – summary report

Sam Hampton, Labib Azzouz, Tina Fawcett, Philip Grunewald, David Howey, Volkan Kumtepeli, Tina Mould and Tim Rose

Energy
April 2023

Energy Superhub Oxford's (ESO) main focus was investment in infrastructure for energy storage, electric vehicle charging, low carbon home heating and developing innovative, smart ways of generating benefits for users, investors and society at large. This summary report highlights research findings spanning each of the major work packages: transport, decarbonising heat, and the transmission grid connected battery, its operation and carbon impact. 

Energy Superhub Oxford, Final Report

Hampton, S et al.

Energy
April 2023

Energy Superhub Oxford (ESO) is a £41m demonstration project delivering innovation in smart local energy systems. As countries around the world embark on energy transitions to decarbonise their economies, decentralised and digitised solutions are increasingly important in delivering power, heat and mobility to users. Exploring options for smart local energy systems is a key UK priority.
ESO is one of three large demonstrator projects part-funded by the UK government under its “Prospering from the Energy Revolution” (PFER) programme. Work began in April 2019 and ran until March 2023. ESO’s main focus has been on investment in infrastructure for energy storage, electric vehicle charging, low carbon home heating and developing innovative, smart ways of generating benefits from these for users, investors and society at large.
This report has been produced by the University of Oxford team and draws on their research findings spanning each of the major work packages: transport (including private wire and Superhub construction), decarbonising heat, and the transmission grid connected battery, its operation and carbon impact.
It also includes a chapter on consortium working practices and concludes with overall learnings from the project.

Foresight4food leaflet

Foresight4Food

Food systems
February 2023

Foresight is a key tool that governments, private sector, and civil society can jointly use to better understand future risks and opportunities, explore possible futures, and to adapt. Foresight4Food anticipates trends and changes in food systems, analyses solutions and innovations, and creates foresight-backed scenarios and options to guide action. 

Making community-scale food systems more resilient

Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, Bethan Mead, Isabel Fletcher and Luca Panzone

Food systems
July 2022

Better digital networks, accessible venues and nutrition-based subsidies could all help community-scale food providers play a greater role in making the UK food system more resilient and nutritious. This policy brief explores the barriers to market faced by three community-scale food provision models – farmers markets, salad suppliers and community growers – as Covid-19 changed food consumption patterns.

How can SMEs enhance resilience of the UK food system?

Maddy Diment, Tom Curtis and Mark Reed

Food systems
March 2022

Collaboration with larger institutions could untap the potential for small and medium sized enterprises to contribute to greater UK food security, according to a policy and practice brief from the GFS FSR Programme. The briefing note examines how specific interactions between SMEs and larger players in the food system could result in greater food system resilience.

Enhancing the resilience of London's food system

Food Systems Transformation Group

Food systems
February 2022

Discussions with Greater London Authority’s (GLA) Food Resilience Champions Group were framed around four key resilience questions: Resilience of what? Resilience from whose perspective? Resilience to what? And resilience over what time frame? These discussions led to co-creation of three resilience strategies based on robustness, recovery and re-orientation.

Resilience of the UK Food System in a Global Context: key messages for stakeholders

Food Systems Resilience team

Food systems
November 2021

This report contains insights from a major interdisciplinary research programme to enhance the UK’s food security in a changing world. Undertaking collaborative research spanning UK universities, research institutes and many other stakeholders, 13 projects produced evidence and recommendations for policy and practice to help to identify and develop interventions to strengthen UK food security.

Transforming the resilience of UK grazing livestock systems

Lisa Norton and Ann Bruce

Food systems
September 2021

The GFS FSR Programme  policy and practice brief recommends actions for enhancing the resilience of grazing livestock systems. Transforming the resilience of UK grazing livestock systems presents an integrated set of system-level interventions for transformational change in UK grazing livestock systems to improve their resilience to environmental, social and economic shocks and stresses.

Resilience of the UK food system regarding demand for soy

Chris West

Food systems
September 2021

A policy and practice brief from the GFS FSR Programme examines the risks associated with soy dependency in the food industry and shares recommendations on how those in the food system can mitigate exposure to current and future risks.

Natural capital in Oxfordshire

Alison Smith

Ecosystems
September 2021

A short report of the method used to generate preliminary Natural Capital maps for Oxfordshire. The work was undertaken under an Oxford Policy Exchange Network fellowship, enabling Alison Smith to work with Oxfordshire County Council, with support from Cherwell District Council, and develop evidence on natural capital to feed into development of the Oxfordshire Plan to 2050.

Pathways to a Zero Carbon Oxfordshire: summary

Sam Hampton, Lewis Knight, Hannah Scott, Hannah Budnitz, Gavin Killip, Scot Wheeler, Alison Smith and Nick Eyre

Energy
June 2021

An overview of the report on Oxfordshire can sustain the momentum of the last decade to achieve net-zero emissions. Decarbonising transport, reducing reliance on fossil fuels for heating, and protecting and enhancing carbon stored in the natural environment are priorities for the next two decades.

Pathways to a Zero Carbon Oxfordshire: report

Sam Hampton, Lewis Knight, Hannah Scott, Hannah Budnitz, Gavin Killip, Scot Wheeler, Alison Smith and Nick Eyre

Energy
June 2021

Oxfordshire has made good progress on achieving its climate goals, with success in decarbonising electricity and reducing energy demand over the last. This report addresses how Oxfordshire can sustain the momentum of the last decade to achieve net-zero emissions. There remains significant work to do to decarbonise transport, reduce reliance on fossil fuels for heating, and protect and enhance carbon stored in the natural environment.

Farmers and food systems: What future for small-scale agriculture?

Jim Woodhill, Saher Hasnain and Alison Griffith

Food systems
January 2021

What does the future hold for the world’s 500 million small-scale farms as food systems change? A significant transformation of small-scale agriculture is needed to realise the SDGs, and to achieve healthier, more equitable and environmentally sustainable food systems. This report argues that a much deeper, more nuanced and up-to-date understanding of small-scale agriculture and family farming is urgently needed to drive such a transformation.

Mapping the UK food system – summary

Saher Hasnain, John Ingram and Monika Zurek

Food systems
November 2020

Executive summary contains highlights of the distribution of economic value, the number of enterprises, and levels of employment across the UK food system. 

Mapping the UK food system: A report for the UKRI Transforming UK Food Systems Programme

Saher Hasnain, John Ingram and Monika Zurek

Food systems
November 2020

This report quantifies the distribution of economic value, the number of enterprises, and levels of employment across the UK food system. It has ‘mapped’ UK food system activities as described by their economic value, employee and enterprise numbers. This provides a first assessment of the overall shape of the UK food system and a foundation to build on for further analyses.

Guidance note: Creating a green infrastructure base map

Alison Smith, Pam Berry, Rob Dunford-Brown and Martin Besnier

Ecosystems
January 2020

This short guidance note lists potential datasets that can be used to create a base map of existing green infrastructure assets, and suggests how they could be combined into a single asset map.

Water-energy-food interdependencies: implications for Local Authorities

Rebecca White

Food systems
June 2019

The nexus of interdependencies between the water, energy and food (WEF) systems are multiple. The increasing pressure on all these systems has been described as the ‘perfect storm’; stresses and shocks in one system have potential knock-on effects on the others, with implications for life and its quality. A multi-disciplinary study – WEFWEBS – sought to explore, map and measure these relationships at multiple scales and in different places across the UK. Local Authorities can play a critical role in building awareness of the water-energy-food nexus regionally, and developing capacity and resilience to manage likely stresses and strains.

A force for change in the food system

Food System Group

Food systems
February 2019

An introduction to the Food System Group at ECI. Our aim is to have a positive impact on food systems through collaborative initiatives, ranging from understanding the links between food security and global environmental change to creating new communities of food systems thinkers.

Public participation in a West of England energy transition: Key patterns and trends

Jake Barnes

Energy
February 2019

This report addresses the question: how and where is public participation in energy systems occurring in the West of England? Achieving deep and timely cuts to carbon emissions requires fundamental changes to the way society produces and consumes energy, and the active engagement and participation of citizens. 

Climate Tribune: Looking to the long road ahead

John Magrath and Meraz Mostafa

Food systems
November 2018

Scenario building is just one tool to help us think about the future. The Zero Hunger, Zero Emissions project uses scenario building to ask questions about the future of Bangladesh, particularly in terms of climate change and food security. This issue of Climate Tribune explores the importance of scenario building, insights into the process, the scenarios that were developed by this project and how people reacted to them.

Energy publics: Research protocol

Jake Barnes

Energy
June 2018

This protocol outlines the research design and methodological steps for a rapid review of evidence for the project Energy Publics. The aim is to gather up-to-date information about energy participation within the West of England.

Land-cover scores for ecosystem service assessment

Alison Smith and Rob Dunford

Ecosystems
June 2018

A short report that describes a simple method for mapping ecosystem services based on scoring different types of land cover from 0 to 5, depending on their ability to supply different services. We applied this approach to the Bicester area, by adapting a matrix of land-cover scores generated from a study in Warwickshire, Coventry and Solihull.

The value of green space in Bicester to local people

Alison Smith, Helen Mason, Pam Berry, Jo Thompson and Rob Dunford

Ecosystems
June 2018

This guidance note presents evidence on the value of Bicester’s green spaces to local people, gathered through a public survey in summer 2017, using interviews, a focus group and an online app; and through a new online tool called ORVal that estimates the welfare value of green spaces for recreation anywhere in England.

Energy publics database

Jake Barnes

Energy
February 2018

Data from the Energy publics project final report.

Food systems and climate change in the Canadian Maritimes

Bernard Soubry

Food systems
July 2017

In the Canadian Maritimes, coastal sea level rise, changing temperatures, and erratic weather impact the way food is produced, stored, distributed, and consumed. We asked 40 farmers, retailers, and other food system actors about the vulnerability of the Maritimes food system. Our research identifies key areas of intervention for governments and other institutions, from integrating local knowledge to inform adaptation action to switching to more sustainable and resilient practices.