Climate change and land-use change are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14 per cent by 2030, 30 per cent by the end of 2050 and 50 per cent by the end of the century.
This is according to a new report, released ahead of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID-Arendal, for which the ECI’s Dr Imma Oliveras is a contributing author.
The report, Spreading like wildfire: The rising threat of extraordinary landscape fires, calls for a radical change in government spending on wildfires, shifting their investments from reaction and response to prevention and preparedness.
Wildfires and climate change are mutually exacerbating. Wildfires are made worse by climate change through increased drought, high air temperatures, low relative humidity, lightning, and strong winds resulting in hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons. At the same time, climate change is made worse by wildfires, mostly by ravaging sensitive and carbon-rich ecosystems like peatlands and rainforests. This turns landscapes into tinderboxes, making it harder to halt rising temperatures.
The publication calls on governments to adopt a new ‘Fire Ready Formula’ with two-thirds of spending devoted to planning, prevention, preparedness, and recovery, with one third left for response. Currently, direct responses to wildfires typically receive over half of related expenditures, while planning and prevention receive less than one per cent.
Dr Imma Oliveras, Departmental Research Lecturer in Ecosystems Science and Deputy Programme Leader on Ecosystems at the ECI said:
“This is one of the most important reports about wildfires written to date, and highlights that globally extreme wildfires will increase a lot due to anthropogenic climate change. It also highlights the need of investing in fire prevention policies, including different dimensions from economics to international collaboration, inclusion of traditional knowledge and gender parity.”