Changes in energy systems rarely happen in a straight line. Feedback loops—where a change can either reinforce or resist further change—play a powerful role in shaping the pace and direction of the energy transition. Understanding these dynamics can help policymakers, investors, and analysts make better decisions to accelerate the transition.
These issues are explored in a recent comment in Nature Reviews: Clean Technology by researchers at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford, working with colleagues from across the UK energy and innovation research community.
The comment is co-authored by Max Collett a former MSc Environmental Change and Management (ECM) alumnus of ECI, who now works across energy and innovation research, including at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), the Institute for Sustainable Resources at University College London (UCL), and S-Curve Economics CIC; Professor Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy at the Environmental Change Institute; and Dr Pete Barbrook-Johnson, a teaching associate at ECI, associate at INET and lecturer at UCL.
Drawing on systems thinking, the authors examine how feedback loops can either accelerate or hinder clean energy transitions.
Max Collett said:
Decision makers need mental models of the energy transition that are sensitive to its dynamic complexity. The feedback loops that we outline in this comment provide that heuristic, and explain patterns of change that occur repeatedly across diverse sectors, technologies, and geographies.”
Dr Barbrook-Johnson added:
The feedback loops in the energy transition are extremely powerful but far too often are missing from analysts’ models and decision-makers’ thinking. This comment seeks to put these dynamics front and centre.”
The comment was written in collaboration with researchers from University College London and the University of Manchester.
Read the full comment in Nature Reviews: Clean Technology: Virtuous and vicious cycles in the energy transition