A recent study reveals that policymakers and politicians significantly underestimate how willing the public is to support climate action.
The research, conducted by a University of Oxford team including former ECI DPhil student Dr Josh Ettinger—now a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at George Mason University’s Centre for Climate Change Communication—highlights a major gap between policymakers’ perceptions and public opinion. Dr Ettinger said:
I hope our findings encourage policymakers to be bolder and adopt more ambitious climate policies. There’s more public backing than they might think.”
While previous research showed that 69% of the general public support climate initiatives, the study found that policymakers surveyed estimated this figure at only 37%.
Co-author Dr Stefania Innocenti, Associate Professor and Co-Director of the Economics of Sustainability Programme at the Oxford Martin School, explained, “Policymakers’ views on public opinion can strongly influence their decisions. Underestimating public concern about climate change may be holding back stronger policy measures.”
The research involved asking 191 delegates attending the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA)—including politicians, UN officials, and at least 24 active policy negotiators—to estimate what proportion of people worldwide would be willing to donate 1% of their salary to tackle climate change.
The researchers clarify that they were not suggesting the public should necessarily contribute financially. Instead, this approach revealed a striking mismatch in how policymakers perceive global support for climate action.
Surprisingly, despite their direct involvement and expertise, UNEA delegates underestimated public willingness at a level comparable to that of the general population.
Dr Innocenti, who also leads the Behaviour and the Environment group at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, noted: “Several factors might explain this, including the influence of media coverage, lobbying efforts, and frequent exposure to certain ideological perspectives. More research is needed to understand why these misperceptions exist, but our results clearly point to a gap between reality and policymakers’ beliefs.”
Read the full paper published in Nature communications earth & environment: United Nations Environment Assembly attendees underestimate public willingness to contribute to climate action