Less energy, lower costs, fewer risks: energy futures co-created with government and the public show the UK’s fastest route to Net Zero

Prof Christian Brand, Emeritus Professor of Transport, Energy and Climate Change at the ECI and the Transport Studies Unit at the University of Oxford, led the analysis of the transport sector — a particularly challenging area for decarbonisation — contributing detailed modelling of travel behaviour, vehicle technologies, and infrastructure choices to the overall energy scenarios.

Published in Nature Energy, the research was carried out by a consortium of universities –Leeds, UCL, Manchester and Oxford – working alongside the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT). Together, they co-designed a series of future energy scenarios that explore how different combinations of technology, lifestyle and societal change could shape the UK’s path to net zero by 2050.

Unlike most energy modelling studies, which are designed by academics and later reviewed by policymakers, this project reversed the usual process. Policymakers were embedded in the research team from the outset, helping to identify the most important uncertainties and policy priorities — including economic growth, social trust, and political feasibility — that shaped the scenario framework.

This “co-creation” approach marked a first-of-its-kind collaboration between researchers and government, producing scenarios that are both scientifically rigorous and politically grounded.

Using behavioural data and system-level analysis, Prof Brand’s work examined how different patterns of travel, vehicle technologies, and infrastructure choices could influence energy use and emissions across the four scenarios.

Prof Brand said:

Transport remains one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise quickly, so it was particularly rewarding for Oxford to lead that part of the work. This was a genuinely collaborative process — working side-by-side with the civil service to understand how policy is developed in practice. It was a fascinating insight into how the civil service operates and how evidence can feed into real policy thinking.”

Alongside the modelling, the researchers held a series of public dialogues with UK residents to explore how believable each scenario felt and what impact people thought it might have on everyday life. While policymakers often viewed the lower-growth, community-focused “Slow Lane Society” scenario as restrictive, members of the public described it as hopeful and positive — showing how perceptions of desirable futures can differ between experts and citizens.

The study finds that by rethinking how people travel, work, heat their homes and consume goods, the UK could cut its total energy demand by between 18% and 45% by 2050. These demand-side reductions would maintain quality of life while costing around half as much as technology-led pathways that rely heavily on technologies that are unproven at scale, such as carbon dioxide removal and sustainable aviation fuels.

Crucially, lower-demand futures would also reduce dependence on carbon dioxide removal technologies by around 70%.

Through their work on transport research, the ECI and TSU have shown how detailed, sector-specific insights can be integrated into national energy scenarios that are designed jointly by policymakers, academics, and the public. Prof Brand hopes this approach will inspire future climate research and policymaking that is both evidence-based and people-centred.

The research was supported by the Government Office for Science (GO-Science) as part of the Net Zero Society Foresight project, with additional support from the UK Energy Research Centre.

Read the full study published in Nature Energy: Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures 

Read the policy brief published in Nature Energy: Policymakers and academics envision energy demand reductions beyond typical policies in the United Kingdom