Dr Paul Sayers
Honorary Research Associate
Paul leads a specialist consultancy focused on the management of the water environment and its associated risks. Paul has over twenty years international experience in all aspects of flood and coastal risk management - including large scale strategic planning studies in the UK, China, Africa, Europe and the US.
Paul is an advisor to the joint Defra-Environment Agency Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management research programme in the UK and co-led the Infrastructure theme within the UK Flood Risk Management Research Consortium. He is a member of the editorial panel for the CIWEM Journal of Flood Risk Management and acts as a reviewer for many other publications.
Paul is also an Associate Advisor to WWF-UK, providing strategic advice to WWF's Freshwater Programme focusing on flood and drought issues with a particular emphasis on strategic water management.
In addition to his visiting position at Oxford, Paul is also a visiting lecturer within the flood resilience group at IHE-UNESCO in the Netherlands.
- Sayers, P., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Horritt, M. (2017) Flood vulnerability, risk, and social disadvantage: currentand future patterns in the UK. Regional Environmental Change.
- Sayers, P.B. (2017) Evolution of Strategic Flood Risk Management in Support of Social Justice, Ecosystem Health, and Resilience..
- Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M., Penning Rowsell, E. and Fieth, J. (2017) Present and future flood vulnerability, risk and disadvantage: A UK assessment. A report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published by Sayers and Partners LLP.
- Sayers, P.B., Yuanyuan, L., Moncrieff, C., Jianqiang, L., Tickner, D., Gang, L. and Speed, R. (2017) Strategic drought risk management: eight ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. International Journal of River Basin Management: 1-17.
- Stripling, S., Panzeri, M., Blanco, B., Rossington, K., Sayers, P. and Borthwick, A. (2017) Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment. Coastal Engineering, 121: 129-144.
- Brisley, R., Wylde, R., Lamb, R., Cooper, J., Sayers, P. and Hall, J.W. (2016) Techniques for valuing adaptive capacity in flood risk management. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management, 169(2): 75-84.
- Sayers, P., Horritt, M., Penning-Rowsell, E., McKenzie, A. and Thompson, D. (2016) The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer (FFE)., 7(21005) E3S Web Conf. Volume 7, 21005, 2016, 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016).: 9.
- Sayers, P., Lamb, R., Panzeri, M., Bowman, H., Hall, J., Horritt, M., and Penning-Rowsell, E. (2016) Believe it or not? The challenge of validating large scale probabilistic risk models. E3S Web Conf, 7.
- Speed, R.A., Li, Y., Tickner, D., Huang, H., Naiman, R.J., Cao, J., Lei, G., Yu, L., Sayers, P., Zhao, Z. and Wei, Y. (2016) A framework for strategic river restoration in China. Water International, 41(7): 998-1015.
- Sayers, P. (2015) Communicating the chance of a flood: The use and abuse of probability, frequency and return period. FORUM Project publication, University of Oxford
- Sayers, P., Galloway, G., Penning-Rowsell, E., Shen, F., Wen, K., Chen, Y. and Le Quesne, T. (2015) Strategic flood management: ten "golden rules" to guide a sound approach. International Journal of River Basin Management, 13(2).
- Sayers, P., Horritt, M.S., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Mckenzie, A. (2015) Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Sayers and Partners LLP report for the Committee on Climate Change.. 125.
- Sayers, P., Walsh, C. and Dawson, R. (2015) Climate impacts on flood and coastal erosion infrastructure. Journal of Infrastructure Asset Management, Institution of Civil Engineers, London, 2(2): 69-83.
- Penning-Rowsell, E., Sayers, P.B. and Watkinson, A. (2014) Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and Case Studies: High level case study: Flooding. In, Contribution to the Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. by Government Office for Science, UK.
- Sayers, P., Nathan, R., Rodda, H., Tomlinson, E. and Bowles, D. (2014) Comparison of Flood Hazard Estimation Methods for Dam Safety - Phase 1. CEATI International, Montreal, Canada.
- Sayers, P., Li, Y., Galloway, G., Penning-Rowsell, E., Shen, F., Wen, K., Chen, Y. and Le Quesne, T. (2013) Flood Risk Management: A strategic approach. UNESCO, WWF, ADB, GIWP.
- Jiabi, X., Sayers, P., Dongya, S. and Hanghui, Z. (2012) Broad-scale reliability analysis of the flood defence infrastructure within the Taihu Basin, China. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 6: 42-56.
- Ramsbottom, D., Sayers, P. and Panzeri, M. (2012) Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Floods and Coastal Erosion Sector. Defra, London.
- Sayers, P. (ed.) (2012) Flood Risk: Planning, Design and Management of Flood Defence Infrastructure. ICE Publishing. ISBN: 9780727741561.
- Sayers, P., Korternhaus, A. and Flickweert, J. (2012) Supporting Flood Risk Management Through Better Infrastructure Design And Management. In, Sayers, P. (ed.) Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. .
- Sayers, P.B., Galloway, G.E. and Hall, J.W. (2012) Robust decision making under uncertainty - Towards adaptive and resilient flood risk management infrastructure. In, Sayers, P.B. (ed.) Flood Risk: Planning, Design and Management of flood defence infrastructure. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 281-302.
- Tarrant, O. and Sayers, P. (2012) Supporting Flood Risk Management Through Better Infrastructure Design And Management. In, Sayers, P. (ed.) Flood risk management - The design and management of supporting infrastructure. .
- Dawson, R., Sayers, P.B., Hall J.W. and Bates, P. (2003) Flood risk assessment for Shoreline Management Planning. Proceeding of the ICE International Conference on Coastal Management, Brighton, UK 2003.
- Ohl, C., Frew, P., Sayers, P., Watson, G., Lawton, J., Farrow, J., Walkden, M. and Hall, J.W. (2003) North Norfolk - a regional approach to coastal erosion management and sustainability in practice. International Conference on Coastal Management, January 2003.. 226-240.
- Sayers, P.B., Hall, J.W. and Meadowcroft, I.C. (2002) Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Civil Engineering, 150(5): 36-42.
- Sayers, P.B., Meadowcroft, I.C., Hall, J.W., Gouldby, B.P. and Simm, J. (2002) Risk, performance and uncertainty in flood and coastal management - A review. A report for the Environment Agency by HR Wallingford. Also summarised in Meadowcroft IC, Sayers PB, Hall JW. (2002) paper of the same title presented at the Annual Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, University of Keele, June 2002.
- Deakin, R., Burgess, K., Samuels, P., Sayers, P.B. and Chatterton, J. (2001) National Assets at Risk Under Climate Change. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK.
- Sayers, P.B., Meadowcroft, I.C., Moody, A., Gouldby, B., Crossman, M. (2001) Integrating reliable flood modelling with probabilistic analysis in practice. Proceedings of the MAFF River and Coastal Engineering Conference, UK.
Sayers PB, Wallis M, Simm JD, Baxter G and Andryszewski (2010) Towards the Next Generation of Risk-Based Asset Management Tools. Editors Pender and Flaukner. Wiley Publications
Samuels, P., Morris, M., Sayers, P., Creutin, J., Kortenhaus, A., Klijn, K., et al. (2010). A Framework For Integrated Flood Risk Management. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR, European Congress, Edinburgh, May 2010.
C. Mc Gahey, P. Sayers, M. Wills, J. Lanyon, A. Weisgerber, S. Surendran, A. Baylis, T. Linford (2010). Modelling and Decision Support Framework 2 (MDSF2) - Initial Applications and Lessons Proc. Of the FCM10 Conference. Environment Agency
Gouldby B, Sayers PB, Panzeri MC, Lanyon J (2010) Development of application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering; Mar2010, Vol. 37 Issue 3, p496. Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering.
Phillips, T.and Hall, J.H. and Dawson, R.J. and Barr, S. and Ford, A. and Batty, M. and Dagoumas, A. and Sayers, P.B. (2008) Strategic appraisal of flood risk management options over extended timescales: combining scenario analysis with optimization. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Gouldby BP, Sayers PB, Mulet-Marti J, Hassan M, Benwell D (2008) A Methodology for Regional Scale Flood Risk Assessment Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Engineering, June 2008
McGahey, C.and Sayers, P.B (2008) Long term planning robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Lhomme, J.and Sayers, PB. and Gouldby, B.P. and Samuels, P.G. and Wills, M. and Mulet-Marti, J. (2008) Recent development and application of a rapid flood spreading method. In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)
Krupka, M., Pender, G., Wallis, S., Sayers, PB., & Mulet-Marti, J. (2007, July). A rapid flood inundation model. In Proceedings Of The Congress-International Association For Hydraulic Research (Vol. 32, No. 1,p. 28).
Hall JW; Sayers PB; Walkden MJA; Panzeri M (2006). Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030â€“2100. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2006, 364(1841), 1027-1049
Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Manning LJ; Walkden MJA; Dickson ME; Sayers PB (2006). Managing changing risks to infrastructure systems.. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering 2006, 159 (Special Issue 2), 21-27.
Sayers PB and Meadowcroft IC (2005). RASP - A hierarchy of risk-based methods and their application. Proceedings of the 40th Defra Conf. of River and Coastal Management.
Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004). Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 2: Managing future risks. Office of Science and Technology, London.
Evans, E.P., Ashley, R., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.P., Saul, A., Sayers, PB., Thorne, C.R. and Watkinson, A. (2004). Foresight Future Flooding, Scientific Summary: Volume 1: Future risks and their drivers. Office of Science and Technology, London.
Dawson R, Hall JW, Sayers PB, Bates P (2003). Flood risk assessment for shoreline management. Proceeding of the ICE International Conference on Coastal Management, Brighton, UK 2003
Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC; Sayers PB; Bramley ME (2003).Integrated flood risk management in England and Wales. Natural Hazards Review 2003, 4(3), 126-135.
Hall JW; Evans EP; Penning-Rowsell EC; Sayers PB; Thorne CR; Saul AJ (2003). Quantified scenarios analysis of
drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100. Environmental Hazards 2003, 5(3-4), 51-65.
Hall JW; Dawson RJ; Sayers P; Rosu C; Chatterton J; Deakin R (2003). A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water & Maritime Engineering 2003, 156(3), 235-247. Robert Carr Prize
Meadowcroft IC, Sayers PB, Hall JW. (2002) Risk, performance and uncertainty in flood and coastal management - a defining review. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, University of Keele, June 2002, papers published by DEFRA, London.
Sayers PB; Hall JW; Meadowcroft IC (2002). Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Civil Engineering 2002, 150(5), 36-42.