Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

• nicola.ranger@ouce.ox.ac.uk

• Resilience and International Development Programme

Dr Nicola Ranger leads the Resilience and International Development Programme of the Environmental Change Institute. She is also Executive Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Systemic Resilience and a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking of the Oxford Martin School.

Her research addresses the measurement, valuing and integration of resilience and environmental sustainability risks, impacts and goals within decision making, and the alignment of policy and finance with sustainable, resilient and inclusive growth. Her research covers climate, nature, resilience, adaptation and the SDGs with a strong finance, macro and public policy lens. She works with governments, Central Banks, regulators, financial institutions and international organisations to provide data, analytics and evidence to inform policies, finance and investment at all scales to build resilience and positively advance sustainability and inclusive development. She works predominantly in UK/Europe and emerging and developing economies.

Her research is interdisciplinary with a focus on quantitative research covering risk, analytics, decision science and economics. She works on a wide range of issues at the intersection of sustainability, policy, risk and finance, from assessing systemic risks, to measuring the impact of investments, to mobilising finance for sustainability and resilience, fiscal policy, sustainable finance, financial regulation and supervision, the role international financial institutions and designing global crisis risk financing mechanisms.

Ranger holds multiple advisory roles, including as a Senior Advisor for the World Bank, a member of the European Commission High Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance in Low and Middle Income Economies, an Academic Visitor at the Bank of England, a member of the UK Green Taxonomy Advisory Group, and a member of the Financial Systems Thinking Innovation Centre of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Nicola also holds a Senior Visiting Research Fellowship at the Grantham Research Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Ranger bring 20 years' experience in risk, analytics, modelling, decision science, economics and finance as a practitioner and researcher across industry, government, IFIs and academia. She joined the ECI from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment where she was Director, Climate and Environmental Analytics, UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment, and Head of Sustainable Finance Research for Development in the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group. Prior to joining Oxford in 2021, Ranger held senior roles in the World Bank and DFID (now FCDO). In these roles, Ranger worked with financial institutions, Ministries of Finance, Central Banks, International Financial Institutions and regional institutions to strengthen fiscal and financial resilience to climate and other crises, strengthen financial sector development, mobilise finance for resilience and put in place local, national and international systems to strengthen resilience to shocks and crises. At DFID, she also worked to strengthen national early warning systems, shock-responsive systems and integrate climate adaptation and disaster risk management into national policy and investment. Ranger also has a professional background in insurance and catastrophe risk modelling and has been involved in establishing insurance-based mechanisms, contingent financing and regional risk pools protecting multiple countries.

Ranger began her career as a scientific adviser on climate mitigation and adaptation policy and researcher on the science, economics and policy of climate change. Nicola completed her postdoctoral research in climate economics and policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science and holds a doctorate in Atmospheric Physics from Imperial College London. In 2005/06, she was part of the HMT/Cabinet Office Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change team and has worked as a Scientific Adviser at Defra, HM Treasury and the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology. She has published extensively and contributed to major reports including two UK National Climate Change Risk Assessments, the first UNEP Emissions Gap Report, and reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

2023

• Ranger, N., Clacher, I and Bloomfield, H. (2023) Learning from the 2021/22 Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) Exercise in the UK: Survey Report. Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2023. Collaboration between the UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment and the Climate Financial Risk Forum.
• Ranger, N., Clacher, I., Bloomfield, H. and Caldecott, B. (2023) Learning from the 2021/22 Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) Exercise in the UK: Recommendations for Central Banks, Supervisors, Financial Institutions and Researchers. Working Paper, UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment
• Fankhauser, S.; Britz, K.; Dickie, I.; England, K.; Howarth, C. and Ranger, N. (2023) Case Studies in Adaptation Finance. Working Paper, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford.
• Marotta, F., Ranger, N. and Fankhauser, S. "Securing climate compatible growth: the role of fiscal policy in driving the resilient transition through times of crisis". Working paper. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford (forthcoming)
• Sadler, A., Ranger, N., Fankhauser, S., O'Callaghan, B. and Marotta, F. "The impact of COVID-19 response spending on climate change adaptation and resilience". Submitted.
• Sadler, A., Ranger, N., Fankhauser, S., O'Callaghan, B. and Marotta, F. "Oxford Climate Adaptation and Resilience Taxonomy". Working paper. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford (forthcoming)

2022

• Ranger, N. and Mullan, M. (2022) Adaptation and resilience finance: The role of 'alignment' in scaling up adaptation and resilience finance in the Global South in Scaling Up Sustainable Finance and Investment in the Global South, CEPR.
• Ranger, N., Signer, B. and Kirsch-Wood, J. (2022) Towards a Climate-Risk Data Architecture: Common and open risk metrics to align finance with climate-resilient development goals. UNDRR and UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment.
• Kruczkiewicz, A. et al. Multiform flood risk in a rapidly changing world: what we don't do, what we should and why it matters. Environmental Research Letters, 17 081001
• Pitman, A; Fiedler, T.; Ranger, N; et al. (2022) Acute climate risks in the financial system: examining the utility of climate model projections. Environmental Research: Climate; 10.1088/2752-5295/ac856f
• Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E., van Aalst, M., Bazo, J., Fournier-Tombs, E., Funk, S., Hess, J.J., Ranger, N. and Lowe, R., (2021) Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking. International Journal of Forecasting, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.08.003.
• Ranger, N, Mahul, O & Monasterolo, I. (2022) Assessing Financial Risks from Physical Climate Shocks: A Framework for Scenario Generation. Washington DC, World Bank.

2021

• Ranger, N. Mahul, O., Monasterolo, I. (2021) Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: what we know (and don't know). OneEarth, 4 (10): 1375-1385.
• Ranger, N, and Mullan, M. (2021) Aligning finance with climate-resilient development. UK Centre for Greening Finance and Investment and OECD.
• Dibley, A., Wetzer, T., Krishnan, N., Narulla, N., O'Callaghan, B., Quevedo, A., Ranger, N. and Signer, B. (2021) Emerging consequences of COVID-19 on adaptation planning and finance. In UNEP Adaptation Gap Report.
• Ranger, N., Low, L.P. and Signer, B. (2021) Financial Protection of Critical Infrastructure Services. © World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/f2b5dbdf-4149-5333-b2af-7a4b10794c56 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

2020 - 2015

• Montier, E., Harris, C. and Ranger, N. (2019) Disaster Risk Financing in Concert: How coordinated disaster risk financing can save more lives. START Network.
• Lumbroso, D., Brown, E. and Ranger, N. (2016) Stakeholders' perceptions of the overall effectiveness of early warning systems and risk assessments for weather-related hazards in Africa, the Caribbean and South Asia. Natural Hazards, 84(3): 2121-2144.
• Warren, R., Watkiss, P., Wilby, RL., Humphrey, K., Ranger, N., Betts, R., Lowe, J., and Watts, G. (2016) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report: Chapter 2. Report prepared for the Committee on Climate Change.
• Jones, L., Dougill, A., Jones, R.G., Steynor, A., Watkiss, P., Kane, C., Koelle, B., Moufouma-Okia, W., Padgham, J., Ranger, N., Roux, J.P., Suarez, P., Tanner, T. and Vincent, K. (2015) Ensuring climate information guides long-term development. Nature Climate Change, 5: 812-814.

2015 - 2010

• Ranger, N., Harvey, A. and Garbett-Shiels, S.L. (2014) Safeguarding development aid against climate change: evaluating progress and identifying best practice. Development in Practice, 24(4): 467-486.
• Ranger, N., Reeder, T and Lowe, J. (2013) Addressing 'deep' uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the Thames Estuary 2100 Project EURO Journal on Decision Processes, 1: 233-262.
• Ranger, N. and Surminski, S. (2013) A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies. International Journal on Disaster Risk Reduction, 3: 14-30.
• Ranger, N. (2013) Adaptation: Decision making under uncertainty. UK Department for International Development.
• Unburnable Carbon: Wasted Capital and Stranded Assets (2013) James Leaton, Nicola Ranger and Bob Ward, Carbon Tracker & Grantham Research Institute, LSE.
• Fankhauser, S., Ranger, N., Colmer, J., Fisher, S., Surminski, S., Stainforth, D. and Williamson, A. (2013) An Independent National Adaptation Programme for England. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
• Ranger, N and Surminski, S. (2013) Disaster resilience and the post-2015 development goals: options for economic targets and indicators. Chapter 2, In Overseas Development Institute, Disaster risk management in post-2015 development goals, Mitchell, T., Jones, L, and Lovell, E., London UK.
• Ranger, N, and Fisher, S. (2013) Incorporating climate change and growth into the post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. Grantham Research Institute, LSE.
• Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E and Ranger, N. (2013) Insuring future climate catastrophes. Climatic Change, 118: 339-354.
• Ranger, N., Gohar, L.K., Lowe, J.A., Raper, S.C.B, Bowen, A., Ward, R.E. (2012) Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C? Climatic Change, 111: 973-981.
• Ranger, N. and Garbett-Shiels, S. (2012) Accounting for a changing and uncertain climate in planning and policymaking today: lessons for developing countries. Climate and Development, 4(4): 288-300.
• Ranger, N. and Niehoerster, F. (2012) Deep uncertainty in long- term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments. Global Environmental Change, 22(3): 703-712.
• Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Kunreuther, H., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Muir-Wood, R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P. and Young, M. (2012) Catastrophe risk models for evaluating disaster risk reduction investments in developing countries. Risk Analysis, 33(6): 984-999.
• Ranger, N., and Fisher, S. (2012) The challenges of climate change and exposure growth for disaster risk management in developing countries. Report produced for the Government Office of Science, Foresight project 'Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers'
• Ranger, N., et al. (2012) Reducing risks of future disasters: priorities for decision makers. Final Report. The Government Office for Science, London.
• Ranger, N., Hallegatte, S., et al. (2011) An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai. Climatic Change, 104: 139-167.
• Hanson, S., Nicholls, R., Ranger, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Herweijer, C. and Chateau, J. (2011) A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Climatic Change, 104: 89-111.
• Hallegatte, S., Ranger, N., Mestre, O., Dumas, P., Corfee-Morlot, J., Herweijer, C., and Muir Wood, R. February 2011. Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen. Climatic Change, v.104, pp.113-137.
• Kiker, G.A., Muoz-Carpena, R., Ranger, N., Kiker, M. and Linkov, I. (2011) Adaptation in coastal systems: vulnerability and uncertainty within complex socio-ecological systems. In, Linkov, I. and Bridges, T.S. (eds.) Climate: Global Change and Local Adaptation. Springer.
• Ranger, N and Williamson, A. (2011) Forecasting non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies: a preliminary evaluation of the impacts of income and climate change. Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science
• Ranger, N., Surminski, S. and Silver, N. (2011) Open questions about how to address 'loss and damage' from climate change in the most vulnerable countries: a response to the Cancún Adaptation Framework. Grantham Research Institute, LSE.

2010 and before

• The Emissions Gap Report: are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. UNEP 2010. Contributing author.
• Ranger, N., Millner, A., Dietz, S., Fankhauser, S., Lopez, A. and Ruta, G. (2010) Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. Grantham/CCCEP Policy Brief for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.
• Ranger N., Gohar, L., Lowe, J., Bowen, A. and Ward, R. (2010) Mitigating climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C? Grantham Research Institute, LSE.
• Bowen, A. and Ranger, N. (2009) Mitigating climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: the science and economics of future paths for global annual emissions. Grantham/CCCEP Policy Brief No. 2
• Ward, R., Herweijer, C., Patmore N. and Muir-Wood R. (2008) The role of insurers in promoting adaptation to climate change. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 33: 133-139.
• Dietz, S., Hope, C. and Patmore, N. (2007) Some economics of dangerous climate change: reflections on the Stern Review. Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4): 311-325.
• Patmore, N. Toumi, R. (2006) An entropy-based measure of mixing at the tropopause, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 132, Pages: 1949-1967, ISSN: 0035-9009

Wider Communications

• Ranger, N. (2023) Managing Risk in a more Complex World. UKCGFI January 2023, featured in Allianz Climate Risk Award 2022 compendium.
• Ranger, N., Douglas, R., Hall, J., Kirsch-Wood, J. and Moody, N. (2022) To Mobilise the Trillions Needed for Climate Adaptation, the World Needs a Common Language of Risk. UKCGFI 12th November 2022.
• Ranger, N. and Mullan, M. (2022) Mobilizing Finance for Adaptation at COP27: Next Steps in Aligning Finance and Investment with Climate-Resilient Development Goals, Global Centre for Adaptation, 20th October 2022.
• Ranger, N., Mahul, O. and Monasterolo, I. (2021) Learning from COVID-19 and climate change: Managing the financial risks of compound shocks. 11th June 2021
• Vu, H.T., Dicko, T.F. and Ranger, N. (2020) Five Reasons to Support SMEs So They Can Build Stronger Resilience to Future Disaster Shocks. 31 July 2020, Financial Protection Forum.
• Calcutt, E. and Ranger, N. (2020) Five Reasons You Should Be Thinking About Compounding Risks Now. 30 June 2020, Financial Protection Forum.
• Ranger, N. and Signer, B.L. (2018) Even duller disasters? How earlier finance can save lives in emergencies. 12 April 2018, World Bank Blogs.
• Ranger, N. (2012) Hurricane Sandy must remind us that tomorrow's risks are today's problem. LSE Blogs 5 November, 2012
• Ranger, N. (2011) Adapting to the impacts of climate change in the UK. LSE Blogs 31 January 2011
• Ranger, N. and Bowen, A. (2010) Temperature goals heat China climate talks. Guardian.