Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

Dr Neven Fučkar


Research Groups

Dr Neven Fučkar

Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellow, COP26 Fellow in Climate Risk, and Departmental Tutor


Dr Neven S. Fučkar is a climate scientist who focuses on dynamics, prediction, attribution and impacts of extreme events in a changing climate by using observations, reanalysis products, impact models, initialized predictions, and CMIP5/6 and weather/OpenIFS@home simulations. Furthermore, Neven's research interests encompass hydrological cycle, polar processes, interaction between the climate system and the human system affecting health, food production, water resources and markets, climate-related risk assessment and adaptation, and numerical, statistical and machine learning methods. From January to May 2021, Neven was a University of Oxford OPEN fellow working on the connection of climate variability and change with human health and food systems at the Climate Change and Health Group, Public Health England. Additionally, he has been awarded a COP26 Fellowship in Climate Risk by the COP26 Universities Network.

Neven completed his PhD in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA, where he investigated large-scale ocean dynamics, hierarchy of models at different levels of complexity and the ocean's role in climate at NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Prior to joining the Environmental Change Institute, Neven worked at the University of Hawaii, USA, and the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain, where he worked on a spectrum of research subjects: coupled climate dynamics and modelling, interaction of weather/climate with biosphere, sea ice and snow, paleoclimate, sub-seasonal to decadal predictions, downscaling, bias correction and forecast verification, climate variability and change, and extreme events.

Teaching and Supervision

Neven is also a tutor (Physics of Atmospheres and Oceans) at the Department of Physics in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics sub-department. Additionally, he has supervised two bachelor students (BA Geography) and two master students (Master of Physics). Previously, Neven has been a stipendiary lecturer in Physical Geography (Earth System Processes, Earth System Dynamics, Environmental Geography and Geographical Techniques) at St Peter's College, and a college advisor at St Antony's College. Before coming to Oxford, Neven also taught at Texas A&M University, Princeton University, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, and the University of Helsinki.


For a full list of Neven's publications, see his Google scholar and ORCID pages.


Fučkar, N.S., Otto, F.E., Lehner, F., Pinto, I., Sparrow, S., Li, S. and Wallom, D. (2020) On high precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101: S47-S52.

Notz, D., Dörr, J., Bailey, D.A., Blockley, E., Bushuk, M., Debernard, J.B., Dekker, E., DeRepentigny, P., Docquier, D., Fučkar, N.S., Fyfe, J.C., Jahn, A., Holland, M., Hunke, E., Iovino, D., Khosravi, N., Madec, G., Massonnet, F., O'Farrell, S., Petty, A., Rana, A., Roach, L., Rosenblum, E., Rousset, C., Semmler, T., Stroeve, J., Toyoda, T., Tremblay, B., Tsujino, H. and Vancoppenolle, M. (2020) Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47. e2019GL086749.


Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Acosta Navarro, J.C., Acosta, M., Bellprat, O., Billbao, R., Castrillo, M., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., Lledo, L.L., Menegoz, M., Prodhomme, C., Serradell, K., Tinto, O., Batte, L., Volpi, D., Ceglar, A., Haarsma, R. and Massonnet, F. (2018) Using EC-Earth for climate prediction research. ECMWF Newsletter No. 154, Winter 2017/18. 35-40.

Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., Johnson, N.C. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2018) Dynamical prediction of Arctic sea ice modes of variability. Climate Dynamics: 1-17.

Manubes, N., Caron, L.P., Hunter, A., Bellprat, O., Exarchou, E., Fučkar, N.S., García-Serrano, J., Massonnet, F., Menegoz, M., Sicardi, V., Batte, L., Prodhomme, C., Torralba, V., Cortesi, N., Mula-Valls, O., Sarradell, K., Guemas, V. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2018) An R package for climate forecast verification. Environmental Modelling and Software, 103: 29-42.

Otto, F.E.L., Wolski, P., Lehner, F., Tebaldi, C., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Higesteeger, S., Singh, R., Holden, P., Fučkar, N.S., Odoulami, R. and New, M. (2018) Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015 – 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12).

Uotila, P., Goosse, H., Barthelemy, A., Bricaud, C., Carton, J., Fučkar, N.S., Garric, G., Haines, K., Iovino, D., Kauker, F., Korhonen, M., Lien, V., Marnela, M., Massonnet, F., Mignac Carneiro, D., Peterson, K.A., Sadikhi, R., Shi, L., Tietsche, S., Toyoda, T., Xie, J. and Zhang, Z. (2018) An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dynamics: 1-38.


Bellprat, O, Massonnet, F., García-Serrano, J., Fučkar, N.S, Guemas, V., and Doblas-Reyes, F.J.,The role of Arctic sea ice and sea-surface temperatures on the cold 2015 February over North America, 2016, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S36-S41, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0159.1

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Barthelemy, A., Chevallier, M., Cullather, R., Fučkar, N.S., Massonnet, F., Posey, P., Wang, W., Zhang, J., Ardilouze, C., Bitz, C. M., Vernieres, G., Wallcraft, A., and Wang, M.,Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales, 2016, Climate Dynamics, 1-12, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9

Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., Johnson, N.C., Massonnet, F., and Doblas-Reyes, F.J.,Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere, 2016, Clim. Dyn., 47: 1527-1543, DOI: 10.1007/s00382- 015-2917-2 /p>

Fučkar, N.S., Massonnet, F., Guemas, V., García-Serrano, J., Bellprat, O., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., and Acosta, M., Record low northern hemisphere sea ice extent in March 2015, 2016, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S136-S140, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0153.1

Haarsma, R.J., Roberts, M., Vidale, P.L., Senior, C.A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.,High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) for CMIP6, 2016, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185-4208, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016


Massonnet, F., Guemas, V., Fučkar, N.S., and Doblas-Reyes, F.J.,The 2014 all-time high record of Antarctic sea ice extent, 2015, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S163-S167, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00093.1


Fučkar, N. S., Volpi, D., Guemas, V., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A posteriori adjustment of near- term climate predictions: Ac- counting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions, 2014, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5200-5207,
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060815

Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J.J., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Fučkar, N.S., Germe, A., Hawkins, E., Keeley, S., Koenigk, T., Salas y Mélia, D., and Tietsche, S.,A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales, 2014, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401


Frierson, D.M.W., Hwang, Y.T., Fučkar, N.S., Seager, R., Kang, S.M., Donohoe, A., Maroon, E.A., Liu, X., and Battisti, D.S., Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere, 2013, Nature Geosciences, 6, 940-944, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1987

Fučkar, N.S., Xie, S.-P., Farneti, R., Maroon, E.A., and Frierson, D.M.W.,""Influence of the Extratropical Ocean Circulation on the Intertropical Convergence Zone in an Idealized Coupled General Circulation Model, 2013, J. Climate, 26, 4612-4629, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00294.1

Thakur, G., Brevdo, E., Fučkar, N.S., and Wu, H.-T., Synchrosqueezing algorithm for time- varying spectral analysis: Robustness properties and new paleoclimate applications, 2013, Signal Processing. 93 - 5, pp. 1079 - 1094. Elsevier DOI: 10.1016/j.sigpro.2012.11.029


Fučkar, N.S., Adaptive Scaling Model of the Main Pycnocline and the Associated Overturning Circulation, 2010, Ph.D. Thesis, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Reperant, L.A., Fučkar, N.S., Osterhaus A.D.M.E., Dobson A.P., and Kuiken, T.,Spatial and Temporal Association of Outbreaks of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Birds with the 0∘C Isotherm 2010, PLoS Pathog 6(4):e1000854, DOI: 10/1371/journal.ppat.1000854


Fučkar, N.S. and Vallis, G.K.,Interhemispheric influence of surface buoyancy conditions on a circumpolar current, 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14605, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030379


Fučkar, N.S., Elements of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability, 2003, M.Sc. Thesis, Texas A University, College Station, Texas, USA


Giese, B.S., Urizar, S.C., and Fučkar, N.S.,Southern Hemisphere Origins of the 1976 Climate Shift, 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(2), 1014, DOI: 10.1029/2001GL013268