Dr Luke Harrington
Postdoctoral Research Assistant
Luke Harrington is a postdoctoral researcher, supporting several projects to understand how climate extremes respond to a warming world, as well as the downstream implications of these changes.
Luke's current research spans several elements of the climate change problem: (1) quantifying the influence of climate change on modifying the physical characteristics, and subsequent impacts, of recently-observed extreme weather events; (2) identifying how unevenly the impacts of climate change will emerge in the future, both in terms of geography, of different population groupings, and of their socio-economic characteristics; and (3) identifying how disparities between the beneficiaries of carbon emissions and those who suffer the impacts of these emissions translate to incentives for future decision making, both in terms of adaptation and mitigation planning.
Previously, Luke has been a Stipendiary Lecturer in Physical Geography at St Peter's College. Prior to arriving at Oxford, Luke completed his PhD thesis at Victoria University of Wellington, with a focus on developing novel metrics to quantify the emergence of anthropogenic climate change at decision-relevant scales.
- Cowan, T., Hegerl, G.C., Schurer, A., Tett, S.F.B., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Jezequel, A., Otto, F.E.L., Harrington, L.J. and Ng, B. (2020) Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States. Nature Communications, 11. 2870.
- Cowan, T., Undorf, S., Hegerl, G., Harrington, L. and Otto, F. (2020) Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves. Nature Climate Change.
- Frame, D.J., Rosier, S.M., Noy, I., Harrington, L.J., Carey-Smith, T., Sparrow, S.N., Stone, D.A. and Dean, S.M. (2020) Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought. Climatic Change.
- Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E.L. (2020) Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves. Nature Climate Change.
- Hawkins, E., Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M. and Sutton, R. (2020) Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown. Geophysical Research Letter, 47(6). e2019GL086259.
- Otto, F.E.L., Harrington, L., Schmitt, K., Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Singh, R., Kimutai, J. and Wolski, P. (2020) Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
- Otto, F.E.L., Harrington, L.J., Frame, D., Boyd, E., Cedervall Lauta, K., Wehner, M., Clarke, B., Raju, E., Boda, C., Hauser, M., James, R.A. and Jones, R.G. (2020) Towards an inventory of the impacts of human-induced climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
- Frame, D.J., Harrington, L.J., Fuglestvedt, J., Millar, R., Joshi, M. and Caney, S. (2019) Emissions and Emergence: a new index comparing relative contributions to climate change with relative climatic consequences. Environmental Research Letters.
- Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E. (2019) Attributable damage liability in a non-linear climate. Climatic Change.
- Harrington, L.J., Lewis, S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., King, A.D. and Otto, F.E.L. (2019) Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world. Environmental Research Letters.
- Harrington, L.J., Otto, F.E.L., Cowan, T. and Hegerl, G.C. (2019) Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave. Climate Dynamics: 1-19.
- Li, S., Otto, F.E.L., Harrington, L.J., Sparrow, S. and Wallom, D. (2019) A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 °C warming. Environmental Research Letters.
- Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Adapting attribution science to the climate extremes of tomorrow. Environmental Research Letters - Topical Review.
- Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13.
- Harrington, L.J., Frame, D., King, A.D. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) How uneven are changes to impact‐relevant climate hazards in a 1.5°C world and beyond? Geophysical Research Letters, 0(ja).
- King, A.D. and Harrington, L.J. (2018) The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming. Geophysical Research Letters.
- Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K.L., Fischer, E.M., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L., Kharin, V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. and Vardoulakis, S. (2018) Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change, 8: 551-553.
- Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Ebi, K., Fischer, E.M., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L.J., Kharin, V.V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. and Vardoulakis, S. (2018) Avoided heat-related mortality under targeted Paris Agreement scenarios. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018.
- Frame, D., Joshi, M., Hawkins, E., Harrington, L.J. and de Roiste, M. (2017) Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates. Nature climate change, 7: 407-411.
- Harrington, L. (2017) Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change. Climatic Change, 141: 641-654.
- Harrington, L.J., Frame, D.J., Hawkins, E. and Joshi, M. (2017) Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming. Environmental Research Letters.
- Harrington, L., Frame, D., Fischer, E., Hawkins, E., Joshi, M. and Jones, C. (2016) Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5).
- Harrington, L., Gibson, P., Dean, S., Mitchell, D., Rosier, S. and Frame, D. (2016) Investigating event-specific drought attribution using self-organizing maps. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 121(21): 12766-12780.
- King, A., Black, M., Min, S., Fischer, E., Mitchell, D., Harrington, L. and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. (2016) Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(7): 3438-3443.
- Sippel, S., Mitchell, D., Black, M.T., Dittus, A.J., Harrington, L., Schaller, N. and Otto, F. (2015) Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9: 25-35.
- Harrington, L. and Renwick, J. (2014) Secular changes in New Zealand rainfall characteristics 1950-2009. Weather and Climate, 34: 50-59.
- Harrington, L., Rosier, S., Dean, S., Stuart, S. and Scahill, A. (2014) The role of anthropogenic climate change in the 2013 drought over North Island, New Zealand. In, Herring, S.C., Hoerling, M.P., Peterson, T.C. and Stott, P.A. (eds.) Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective. American Meteorological Society. pp. 45-51.