• +44 (0)1865 285536
• friederike.otto@ouce.ox.ac.uk


• Personal Assistant: Sue King
• sue.king@eci.ox.ac.uk

• Climate Theme

Friederike (Fredi) is the Acting Director of the Environmental Change institute and an Associate Professor in the Global Climate Science Programme where she leads several projects understanding the impacts of man-made climate change on natural and social systems with a particular focus on Africa and India.

Her main research interest is on extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation), improving and developing methodologies to answer the question 'whether and to what extent external climate drivers alter the likelihood of extreme weather'. She furthermore investigates the policy implication of this emerging scientific field.

Fredi is co-investigator on the international project World Weather Attribution which aims to provide an assessment of the human-influence on extreme weather in the immediate aftermath of the event occurring.

2018

• Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Adapting attribution science to the climate extremes of tomorrow. Environmental Research Letters - Topical Review.
• Harrington, L.J. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13.
• Harrington, L.J., Frame, D., King, A.D. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) How uneven are changes to impact‐relevant climate hazards in a 1.5°C world and beyond? Geophysical Research Letters, 0(ja).
• Harrington, L.J., Lewis, S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., King, A.D. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world. Environmental Research Letters.
• James, R.A., Jones, R.G., Boyd, E., Young, H.R., Otto, F.E.L., Huggel, C. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. (2018) Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and Damage Policy and Practice? Loss and Damage from Climate Change: 113-154.
• Kew, S.F., Philip, S.Y., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E.L., Vautard, R. and van der Schrier, G. (2018) The exceptional summer heat wave in southern Europe 2017. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December: 1-5.
• Martins, E.S.P.R., Coelho, C.A.S., Haarsma, R., Otto, F.E.L., King, A.D., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Kew, S., Philip, S., Vasconcelos Junior, F.C. and Cullen, H. (2018) A multimethod attribution analysis of the prolonged Northeast Brazil hydrometeorological drought (2012-16). Ch 13. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(12): 65-69.
• Otto, F.E.L., Philip, S., Kew, S., Li, S., King, A. and Cullen, H. (2018) Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events. Climatic Change, 149(3-4): 399-412.
• Otto, F.E.L., Wolski, P., Lehner, F., Tebaldi, C., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Higesteeger, S., Singh, R., Holden, P., Fučkar, N.S., Odoulami, R. and New, M. (2018) Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015 – 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12).
• Philip, S., Kew, S.F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F. and Singh, R. (2018) Validation of a Rapid Attribution of the May/June 2016 Flood-Inducing, Precipitation in France to Climate Change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19: 1881-1898.
• Schaller, N., Sparrow, S.N., Massey, N.R., Bowery, A., Miller, J., Wallom, D.C.H. and Otto, F.E.L. (2018) Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P. Scientific Data, 5(180057).
• Sippel, S., El-Madany, T.S., Migliavacca, M., Mahecha, M.D., Carrara, A., Flach, M., Kaminski, T., Otto, F.E.L., Thonicke, K., Vossbeck, M. and Reichstein, M. (2018) Warm winter, wet spring, and an extreme response in ecosystem functioning on the Iberian Peninsula. Ch 16. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(12): 80-85.
• Uhe, P., Philip, S., Kew, S., Shah, K., Kimutai, J., Mwangi, E., van Oldenborgh, G., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Jjemba, E., Cullen, H. and Otto, F. (2018) Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought. International Journal of Climatology.
• van Oldenborgh, G.J., Phillip, S., Kew, S., van Weele, M., Uhe, P., Otto, F., Singh, R., Pai, I., Cullen, H. and AchutaRao, K. (2018) Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18: 365-381.
• Vautard, R., Colette, A., van Meijgaard, E., Meleux, F., vanOldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F., Tobin, I. and Yiou, P. (2018) Attribution of wintertime anticycolonic stagnation contributing to air pollution in western Europe. Ch. 14. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(12): 70-75.

2017

• Boyd, E., James, R.A., Jones, R.G., Young, H.R. and Otto, F. (2017) A typology of loss and damage perspectives. Nature Climate Change.
• Guillod, B.P., Jones, R.G., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Massey, N.R., Mitchell, D.M., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S.N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D.C.H., Wilson, S. and Allen, M.R. (2017) weather@home 2: validation of an improved global - regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development, 10: 1849-1872.
• Haustein, K., Allen, M.R., Forster, P.M., Otto, F.E.L., Mitchell, D.M., Matthews, H.D. and Frame, D.J. (2017) A real-time Global Warming Index. Nature Scientific Reports, 7(15417).
• Otto, F. (2017) Extreme Weather and Climate. Oxford Bibliographies. Environmental Science.
• Otto, F.E.L. (2017) Attribution of Weather and Climate Events. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 42.
• Otto, F.E.L., Skeie, R.B., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Berntsen, T., Allen, M.R. (2017) Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events. Nature Climate Change, 7.
• Otto, F.E.L., van der Wiel, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Philip, S., Kew, S.F., Uhe, P. and Cullen, H. (2017) Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Environmental Research Letters.
• Parker, H.R., Boyd, E., Cornforth, R.J., James, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M.R. (2017) Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate. Climate Policy, 17(4): 533-550.
• Philip, S., Kew, S.F., van Oldenborgh, G., Otto, F., O'Keefe, S., Haustein, K., King, A., Segele, A., Eshetu, Z., Hailemariam, K., Singh, R., Jjemba, E., Funk, C. and Cullen, H. (2017) Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015. American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate.
• Sippel, S., Forkel, M., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Flack, M., Heimann, M., Otto, F., Reichstein, M. and Mahecha, M. (2017) Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 12(7).
• Sippel, S., Zscheischler, J., Heimann, M., Lange, H., Mahecha, M.D., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Otto, F.E.L. and Reichstein, M. (2017) Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21: 441-458.
• van Oldenborgh, G., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G. and Cullen, H. (2017) Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters.
• Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Otto, F.E.L., Vautard, R. and Vrac, M. (2017) A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 3: 17-31.

2016

• Eden, J.M., Wolter, K., Otto, F.E.L. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. (2016) Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipitation in Boulder, Colorado. Environmental Research Letters, 11(12).
• Haustein, K., Otto, F.E.L., Uhe, P., Schaller, N., Allen, M.R., Hermanson, L., Christidis, N., McLean, P. and Cullen, H. (2016) Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs. Environmental Research Letters, 11(6). 064006.
• Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M. (2016) Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems. Climate Dynamics, 48(306): 1-13.
• Mote, P., Rupp, D., Li, S. Sharp, D. Otto, F., Uhe, P., Xiao, M., Lettermaier, D., Cullen, H. and Allen, M. (2016) Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(20): 10980-10988.
• Otto, F.E.L. (2016) Extreme events: The art of attribution. Nature Climate Change, 6: 342-343.
• Otto, F.E.L., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Eden, J., Stott, P.A., Karoly, D.J. and Allen, M.R. (2016) The attribution question. Nature Climate Change, 6: 813-816.
• Parker, H.R., Cornforth, R.J., Suarez, P., Allen, M.R., Boyd, E., James, R., Jones, R.G., Otto, F.E.L., Walton, P. (2016) Using a Game to Engage Stakeholders in Extreme Event Attribution Science. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 7(4): 353-365.
• Schaller, N., Kay, A.L., Lamb, R., Massey, N.R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S.N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ashpole, I., Bowery, A., Crooks, S.M., Haustein, K., Huntingford, C., Ingram, W.J., Jones, R.G., Legg, T., Miller, J., Skeggs, J., Wallom, D., Weisheimer, A., Wilson, S., Stott, P.A. and Allen, M.R. (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6: 627-634.
• Sippel, S., Otto, F., Forkel, M., Allen, M., Guillod, B., Heimann, M., Reichstein, M., Seneviratne, S., Thonicke, K. and Mahecha, M. (2016) A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth System Dynamics, 7(1): 71-88.
• Sippel, S., Otto, F.E.L., Flach, M. and van Oldenborgh, G. (2016) The role of anthropogenic warming in 2015 central european heat waves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(17): 87-91.
• Uhe, P., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., van Oldenborgh, G.J., King, A.D., Wallom, D.C.H., Allen, M.R. and Cullen, H. (2016) Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(16): 8685-8693.
• van Oldenborgh, G., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K. and AchutaRao, K. (2016) The heavy precipitation event of December 2015 in Chennai, India. In, Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(17), S87-S91.
• van Oldenborgh, G., Philip, S., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F., Singh, R. and Cullen, H. (2016) Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
• Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Otto, F., Stott, P., Christidis, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Schaller, N. (2016) Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events. Environmental Research Letters, 11(11). 114009.

2015

• Bergaoui, K., Mitchell, D., Zaaboul, R., McDonnell, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M. (2015) The Contribution of human-induced climate change to the drought of 2014 in the southern Levant region. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015, 96(12): 66-70.
• Guillod, B., James, R., Massey, N., Otto, F., Hall, J., Allen, M. (2015) Modelling extreme weather in a changing climate: Potential applications for the insurance industry.
• Hannart, A., Pearl, J., Otto, F.E.L., Naveau, P. and Ghil, M. (2015) Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Hannart, A., Vera, C., Otto, F.E.L. and Cerne, B. (2015) Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on the Argentinian heat wave of December 2013. In, Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. pp. 41-45.
• James, R., Otto, F., Parker, H., Boyd, E., Cornforth, R., Mitchell, D. and Allen, M. (2015) Characterizing loss and damage from climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4: 938-939.
• Lopez, A., Suckling, E.B., Otto, F.E.L., Lorenz, A., Rowlands, D. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts. Climatic Chnge, 132(1): 15-29.
• Marthews, T., Otto, F.E.L., Mitchell, D., Dadson, S.J. and Jones, G. (2015) The 2014 drought in the Horn of Africa: Attribution of meteorological drivers. In, Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. pp. 83-88.
• Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F.E.L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Weather@home - development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(690): 1528-1545.
• Otto, F.E.L. (2015) Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather. Nature Geoscience, 8: 581-582.
• Otto, F.E.L., Boyd, E., Jones, R.G., Cornforth, R.J., James, R., Parker, H.R. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climatic Change, 132(4): 531-543.
• Otto, F.E.L., Coleho, C.A.S., King, A., Coughlan de Perez, E., Wada, Y., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Haarsma, R., Haustine, K., Uhe, P., van Aalst, M., Aravequia, J.A., Almeida, W. and Cullen, H. (2015) Water shortage in southeast Brazil. In, Herring, S.C., Howrling, M.P., Kossin, J.P., Peterson, T.C., Stott, P.A. (ed.) Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015. American Meteorological Society. pp. 35-40.
• Otto, F.E.L., Ferro, C.A.T., Fricker, T.E., Suckling, E.B. (2015) On judging the credibility of climate predictions. Climatic Change, 132(1): 47-60.
• Otto, F.E.L., Frame, D.J., Otto, A. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Climate Change, 5: 917-920.
• Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., Cullen, H. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. (2015) Climate Change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK - an event attribution study in near-real time. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12(12): 13197-13216.
• Otto, F.E.L., Rosier, S.M., Allen, M.R., Massey, N.R., Rye, C.J. and Quintana, J.I. (2015) Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change, 132(1): 77-91.
• Parker, H.R., Cornforth, R.J., Boyd, E., James, R., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M. (2015) Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy. Weather, 70(9): 268-273.
• Sippel, S., Mitchell, D., Black, M.T., Dittus, A.J., Harrington, L., Schaller, N. and Otto, F. (2015) Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9: 25-35.
• Sippel, S., Walton, P. and Otto, F.E.L. (2015) Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry. Weather, Climate and Society, 7: 224-236.
• Sippel, S., Zeischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F.E.L., Peters, J. and Mahecha, M.D. (2015) Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20).
• Stott, P.A., Christidis, N., Otto, F.E.L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.P., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P. and Zwiers, F.W. (2015) Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. WIREs Climate change, 7(1): 23-41.
• Thompson, A., Otto, F.E.L. (2015) Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage. Climatic Change, June 2015.
• van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E.L., Haustein, K., Cullen, H. (2015) Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12: 13197-13216.
• Walton, P.J., Yarker, M.B., Mesquita, M.d.S. and Otto, F.E.L. (2015) Helping to Make Sense of Regional Climate Modeling: Professional Development for Scientists and Decision Makers Anytime, Anywhere. American Meteorological Society.
• Wesselink, A., Challinor, A., Watson, J., Beven, K., Allen, I., Hanlon, H., Lopez, A., Lorenz, S., Otto, F., Morse, A., Rye, C., Saux-Picard, S., Stainforth, D. and Suckling, E. (2015) Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change, 132(1).

2014

• Añel, J.A., López-Moreno, J.I., Otto, F.E.L., Vicente-Serrano, S., Schaller, N., Massey, N., Buisán, S.T. and Allen, M.R. (2014) The extreme snow accumulation in the western Spanish Pyrenees during winter and spring 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(9).
• Coghlan, C., Muzammil, M., Ingram, J., Vervoort, J., Otto, F. and James, R. (2014) A sign of things to come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010-2013 and their impacts on food security. Oxfam Research Reports, Oxford. Oxfam.
• Huntingford, C., Marsh, T., Scaife, A.A., Kendon, E., Hannaford, J., Kay, A., Lockwood, M., Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N., Parry, S., Lowe, J., Screen, J., Ward, H., Roberts, M., Stott, P., Bell, V., Bailey, M., Jenkins, A., Legg, T., Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., Schaller, N., Slingo, J. and Allen, M.R. (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4: 769-777.
• Otto, F.E.L., James, R. and Allen, M.R. (2014) The science of attributing extreme weather events and its potential contribution to assessing loss and damage associated with climate change impacts.
• Schaller, N., Otto, F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Massey, N., Sparrow, S. (2014) The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins. In, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 no.9. pp. 69-72.
• Sippel, S. and Otto, F.E.L. (2014) Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate. Climate Change, June 2014.

2013

• Otto, A., Otto, F.E.L., Boucher, O., Church, J., Hegerl, G., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Gregory, J., Johnson, G.C., Knutti, R., Lewis, N., Lohmann, U., Marotzke, J., Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Stevens, B. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience, 6: 415-416.
• Otto, F.E.L., Jones, R.G., Halladay, K. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, B, 368(1625).
• Rupp, D.E., Mote, P.W., Massey, N., Otto, F.E.L. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Human Influence on the probability of low precipitation in the central United States in 2012. In, Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, 94, S2-S6, 2013.

2012

• Massey, N., Aina, T., Rye, C., Otto, F.E.L., Wilson, S., Jones, R.G. and Allen, M.R. (2012) 'Have the odds of warm November temperatures and cold December temperatures in central England changed?' in 'Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective'. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93: 1057-1059.
• Otto, F.E.L. (2012) Modelling the earth's climate - an epistemic perspective. PhD Thesis
• Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Jones, R.G. and Allen, M.R. (2012) Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(L04702).

2010

• Otto, F.E.L. (2010) Von Kopenhagen nach Mexiko (Form Copenhagen to Mexico. Dokumente 65.

2009

• Otto, F.E.L. (2009) Auf dem Weg in die Klimakatastrophe? (On the way to the climate catatrophe?). Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte (Of Politics and History)(52).

2007

• Otto, F.E.L. (2007) Influence of a simplified ozone chemistry in the stratosphere of the planetary wave dynamics in a complex climate model, Diploma Thesis.