School of Geography and the Environment

Research interests

Energy for development; international political economy; global public goods; financial flows for development

Research

The Office of the Principal Scientific Advisor of the Government of India together with the Energy and Resource Institute (TERI 2006) published a detailed and thorough analysis of India’s energy system up to 2030. Despite the high calibre of the modelling exercise undertaken, the conclusions from this document – particularly the low potential impact of renewables, emphasis on reducing reliance on traditional biomass sources and sustained reliance on imported energy sources - raise interesting questions relating to the challenge of energy planning in a rapidly developing economy.

The goals of energy planning have become increasingly complex and recognised as integral to the over-arching goals of national policy. Technical approaches to energy planning, that have historically been a central tool of policy makers, struggle to cope with the multi-dimensional and multi-scale complexity of the modern energy planning problem.

Three energy planning drivers, representing this complexity are to be considered:

• Social development objectives achieved through increasing access to energy – embodied in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
• Environmental concerns to be avoided through increased energy use (both local pollutants and global climate change).
• Energy security and its potential impact on economic growth and political stability.

Existing energy planning models struggle to simultaneously take account of these competing objectives expected of the energy system. Institutional structures are poorly connected such that each objective of energy planning receives attention but the conflicts and synergies between each goal of policy are not always identified and resolved. This may result in inappropriate long term energy planning decisions.

This thesis delivers a framework for analysing the energy planning challenge in the context of developing countries – giving due consideration to:

• the political and financial environment within which planning takes place (at a local, national and international scale)
• the market failures that are embedded in energy delivery and consumption
• social development objectives
• environment – both local pollution and climate change

This framework will be developed in the context of a case study of India. Building on literature in the field of International Political Economy (IPE), a detailed stakeholder map will be developed. Proxies (or indicators) will be determined, appropriate in the Indian context, for measuring the effects of energy planning on the three defined drivers. The effects of India’s existing energy plans on the selected indicators will be determined. A broad series of stakeholder interviews will be conducted to ascertain perspectives on the energy planning process, the relative weight of the different drivers of energy planning, appropriateness of indicators to measure policy effectiveness and perceived barriers to delivering plans that can meet the three objectives of energy planning.

Results will be evaluated to provide policy guidance on likely trends in the Indian energy system and their potential impacts on the selected indicators – given the policy priorities of different stakeholders; the degree of synergy or tension identified between the different energy planning objectives and the stakeholders’ relative influence over the planning process. This analysis will provide support to Indian energy planners with respect to some of the broader implications of their energy planning process and policy. The analysis will also provide a valuable demonstration of the appropriateness of using IPE theories in the context of developing country energy planning. Finally, consideration will be given as to the usefulness of the energy planning analysis framework in capturing the complexity of the energy planning challenge and the level of its suitability and value in other developing country settings.

Allen Shaw has a BSc in Banking and Finance as well an MSc in Environmental change and Management. Prior to commencing this DPhil research he worked for 15 years in the investment banking sector – both as a consultant and a senior manager supporting financial derivatives trading businesses.