School of Geography and the Environment

One of the greatest concerns in ecological science today is the impact of climate change on ecosystems; this presents a particularly difficult challenge for ecologists. Although it is comparatively easy to test plant physiological responses to climate change, the response of plant communities is an altogether more complicated problem to address. Nevertheless, this is an issue that many ecologists see as an imperative in their research and more and more are rising to the challenge.

Ecologists have recognised the relationship between climate and plant distribution for many years and there is an extensive body of work germane to the biogeography of plants. Paleoecological studies have shown that different plant species will respond to climate change in different ways but local conditions (e.g., aspect, soil type) will also play a large part in maintaining the presence of a species. Despite this increasing body of work, it is evident that there are no clear future outcomes for plant communities.

My work has the principal aim of determining how climate change will affect the structure and function of a common and widespread woodland type in Britain – calcareous ash woods (described by the National Vegetation Classification as the W8 Fraxinus excelsior-Acer campestre-Mercurialis perennis and W9 Fraxinus excelsior-Sorbus aucuparia-Mercurialis perennis woodland types).

The primary investigation involves surveying a large number of these woods* throughout Britain and France. The W8 and W9 woodlands provide and opportunity to survey communities that are not only abundant but exist along relatively large climate gradients (i.e., temperature and precipitation). Analogous woodland types also exist in continental Europe that will further extend the climate gradient. The survey entails recording a range of edaphic, climatic and biological variables which will be analysed using multivariate statistics. One of the main aims of this survey is to combine the collection of botanical and woodland structural data (e.g., tree cores, hemispherical canopy photos).

The woodland community analysis will be complemented with a programme of modelling which will involve the use of the ECI's own S.P.E.C.I.E.S model to provide predictions of how climate change will alter the distribution of species in Britain. The model uses observed species distributions data and five environmental inputs to predict the climatic distribution (or fundamental niche) of a given species under future climate change scenarios.

Despite the obvious difficulties in trying to predict how a plant community will be affected by climate change it is hoped that this combined approach will allow me some insights into how these woodlands will develop in the future.

The work is funded by the Forestry Commission.

*I owe a great debt of gratitude to many people in the British and French forestry and conservation world including staff from English Nature, the Countryside Council for Wales, Scottish Natural Heritage, the Forestry Commission, the National Trust, numerous English, Welsh and Scottish County Wildlife Trusts, the Woodland Trust, the Clyde Valley Woodlands Project, Office National des Forêt, CPIE Bocage de L'Avesnois, Steve Gregory and Sallie Bailey.