School of Geography and the Environment

Project Outline

Managing and adapting to climate change have become critical to the welfare of many parts of the world and a major focus of academic research. Multilateral organizations, businesses, NGOs, national and local governments and the research community have an increasing interest in understanding the opportunities and the barriers for adaptation to climate change. The Yucatan Caribbean coast is particularly interesting as it is one of the world’s most rapidly urbanizing coastal frontiers and it is highly dependant on tourism, a climate sensitive sector, in a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change. The region’s low-lying coastline is increasingly exposed to sea level rise and its growing population and tourist industry are highly vulnerable to potentially more intense or frequent tropical storms.

My doctoral research aims to examine what are the opportunities and the barriers for adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change in the tourism sector of the Yucatan Caribbean coast. The hypotheses include that the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector is inhibited by the rapidly growing coastal population and the larger coastal urbanization that is increasing the vulnerability of the region to climate change. There are constraints for a proactive adaptation planning in the development process embedded in present political economy and governance that incentives short-term gain from tourism development without much consideration for long-term planning. The theoretical framework of the project is that of vulnerability and risk analysis to natural hazards and adaptation planning. Political ecology is used to examine the interactions between the political economy, human agency and material nature using methods that include livelihood analysis, GIS mapping, surveys and interviews. The work involves: i) mapping vulnerability to climate change using GIS; ii) analyzing vulnerability to tropical storms in the hotel industry, including the vulnerability of the industry’s workers livelihood through surveys and interviews; iii) assessing current adaptation to climate change through observation and interviews; iv) analyzing future adaptation options in the tourism sector by considering climatic and socioeconomic scenarios, their risks and uncertainties through a participatory approach; and v) analyzing the governance structure for adaptation. The main contribution of my research is expected to bring new understanding of opportunities and barriers for adaptation and adaptive capacity in the tourism sector in the context of a rapidly urbanizing coast in the developing world.

Personal Profile

Arnoldo has a B.A. in Political Science with minors in Environment and Economics from McGill University, Canada. A M.Sc. in Environmental and Resource Management from BTU-Cottbuss, Germany, and a M.Sc. in Renewable Energy and the Environment from Reading University, UK. He has worked as an advisor for the Mexican Delegation to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change and to the Inter-American Institute of Global Change Research. And as an advisor for the National Institute of Ecology and the Committee of Environment and Natural Resources of the Mexican Congress. Recently he has worked as an external collaborator for the UNDP Research for the 2007 Human Development Report and as a consultant for the UK HMG Joint Caribbean Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.

Publications

• Agrawala, S., Matus Kramer, A., Prudent-Richard, G. and Sainsbury, M. (2010) Incorporating climate change impacts and adaptation in environmental impact assessments: opportunities and challenges. OECD Environmental Working Paper No. 24, OECD Publishing.

Links

• Instituto Nacional de Ecología

Photos

Photos are provided with permission from NASA and INE, 2006.
Análisis de posibles impactos del cambio climático. Estudio de caso preliminar: Cancún, Quintana Roo.