Co-evolution of infrastructure, land use and the economy

Supervisor: Professor Jim Hall

Oxford University is leading the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) which is a major EPSRC funded national programme with the aim of developing new approaches to analyse the sustainability of national infrastructure systems, including energy, transport, water, waste and ICT . One of the most interesting aspects of long term change in infrastructure systems is the relationship between provision of infrastructure (e.g. new transport links), changes in land use, and economic development. The nature of the feedbacks between these three different processes is not well understood. Yet understanding of these processes and their interactions is essential if infrastructure systems are to be provided that will avoid locking in to unsustainable patterns of development.

The proposed doctoral project will explore the dynamic relationship between infrastructure, land use and the economy. It will do so by developing relatively simple models of the economy and the contribution that physical infrastructure makes to economic activity. The analysis will go on to explore the spatial characteristics of this relationship. The work will combine empirical data analysis (including econometric analysis) with simulation model development.

The project is multi-disciplinary so will suit a student from a variety of backgrounds including engineering, economics or quantitative sciences. The student must be willing to engage with the practical realities of infrastructure provision whilst also being capable of developing simplified mathematical models and implementing them in computer code. The studentship is supervised by Prof Jim Hall in the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University. The student will be affiliated with the ITRC and will benefit from being part of a major national consortium with extensive links with industry and government.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Optimal pathways to sustainable national infrastructure systems

Supervisor: Professor Jim Hall

Oxford University is leading the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) which is a major EPSRC funded national programme with the aim of developing new approaches to analyse the sustainability of national infrastructure systems, including energy, transport, water, waste and ICT. The ITRC is developing a new system model for long term analysis of the capacity of and demand for UK infrastructure systems in the 21st century. Development of the model is now well advanced and its potential for planning future pathways for infrastructure provision is beginning to become apparent. This doctoral project will explore how such a model could be used to develop long term strategies for infrastructure provision subject to a range of different objectives, such as security of supply, cost-effectiveness or carbon emissions.

The DPhil project will begin with familiarisation with the infrastructure capacity and demand model being developed in ITRC. It will explore alternative objectives for infrastructure provision and metrics for infrastructure performance. The student will then embark upon methodologies for multi-objective optimisation of decision problems, subject to the identified performance objectives. The aim will be to identify possible strategies for infrastructure provision over the 21st century that perform best with respect to a range of objectives, in the context of a wide range of uncertain possible futures.

The project is multi-disciplinary so will suit a student from a variety of backgrounds including engineering, economics or quantitative sciences. The student must be willing to engage with the practical realities of infrastructure provision. Experience of optimisation methods is desirable. The studentship is supervised by Prof Jim Hall in the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University. The student will be affiliated with the ITRC and will benefit from being part of a major national consortium with extensive links with industry and government.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

A stochastic model of dike breaching and inundation volumes

Supervisor: Professor Jim Hall

Disastrous floods occur when flood defences breach. Considerable research effort has been invested in understanding the processes of dike breaching and several credible models of the breaching process now exist. However, implementation in practice is inhibited by the many sources of uncertainty and variability in predicting dike failure at a particular location. We cannot predict precisely when during the tidal cycle or the passage of a fluvial flood wave that a breach would occur, where in the dike it will occur, how rapidly it will grow and how it may combine with other breaches. The aim of the proposed research is, for the first time, to establish methodology for dealing comprehensively with all of these sources of uncertainty. This new breach methodology will then be incorporated within a flood risk calculation and combined with the consequences of flooding in order to come up with improved risk estimates. The benefits of the new approach will be demonstrated by comparison with existing methods. The research will be conducted with partners in government and industry in order to ensure that it has a lasting impact in practice.

The doctoral project requires a candidate from an engineering background. The student must be confident with computer modelling, probability and statistics. A background in hydraulics or geotechnics is desirable. The project will be supervised by Prof Jim Hall in the Environmental Change Institute and a co-supervisor in the Department of Engineering Science in Oxford University.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but the project may attract some industrial funding so a successful applicant will be given advice in arranging this funding. Applicants in need of financial support are also encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Flood risk reduction through innovative public-private partnerships

Supervisor: Professor Jim Hall

Flood risk is derived from a combination of the severity of the flood hazard and the vulnerability and exposure of the threatened population. Changes in flood risk in the past, and plausibly in the future, are as much associated with changing vulnerability as with changing flood hazard due to factors such as climate change. There are a range of mechanisms to influence vulnerability, for example through land use planning and by encouraging householders to take measures to reduce their risk. Insurance and other market instruments have a role to play in communicating risk and, potentially, stimulating risk reduction actions on the part of policy-holders, though insurance companies have for the time being been reluctant to enter into such arrangements. This DPhil project will explore the role of different actors in flood risk management, including planners, householders, insurers and public funders of flood defences, and use agent-based approaches to explore novel arrangements for risk sharing and risk reduction. The research will focus upon London, which has been subject to subject to extensive flood risk analysis as part of the Environment Agency’s Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project and other subsequent studies.

The doctoral project will begin by reviving an existing flood risk model that has been used to analyse long term changes in flood risk in London subject to a very wide range of sea level rise scenarios. A methodology for simulating changing vulnerability, dues to land use and other socio-economic changes will be developed. The student will then investigate the roles of different actors in modifying flood risk and identify a range of measures, in particular relating to insurance and public-private partnerships, that may be adopted to cost-effectively manage changes in flood risk. The role of information and uncertainty in the decisions of these various agents will be explored.

The project is multi-disciplinary so will suit a student from a variety of backgrounds including engineering, economics or quantitative sciences. The student must be willing to engage with the practical realities of flood risk management. The student will also be expected to study processes of social change and the role of different actors in contested public policy problems. The studentship is supervised by Prof Jim Hall in the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but the project may attract some insurance industry funding so a successful applicant will be given advice in arranging this funding. Applicants in need of financial support are also encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Bayesian calibration for flood risk analysis

Supervisor: Professor Jim Hall

Over the last decade there have been significant advances in the development of Bayesian statistical methodology to address the various sources of uncertainty in computer modelling of floods (see for example Hall, J.W., Manning, L.J. and Hankin, R.S. Bayesian calibration of a flood inundation model using spatial data, Water Resources Research, 47 (2011), W05529, doi:10.1029/2009WR008541). The methodology is attractive because it provides well justified probability bounds on the predictions provided by computer models of flooding. The application referred to above dealt with a flood inundation model calibrated with spatial data. Subsequent developments have dealt with a dynamical model calibrated with time series data. The aim of the proposed doctoral project is to extend this work further to address a broader range of models in order to quantify the uncertainties in the coupled set of processes that lead from rainfall, to runoff and river flooding. The amenability of each of these processes to the Bayesian calibration methodology will be assessed. The existing methodology will be adapted to address the particular challenges of these new classes of models. The methodologies will be integrated to develop a new and rigorous end-to-end analysis of uncertainties in flood risk estimates.

The student undertaking this doctoral project will be required to work intensively on advanced statistical methodologies. A background in statistics, mathematics or a quantitative science subject is therefore essential. Familiarity with hydrology and flood risk analysis is also desirable. The project will be supervised by Prof Jim Hall in the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but the project may attract some industrial funding so a successful applicant will be given advice in arranging this funding. Applicants in need of financial support are also encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. This DPhil is eligible for one of the departmental NERC studentships. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Bayesian estimation of uncertainties in downscaled climate model projections

Supervisors: Professor Jim Hall and Professor Myles Allen

There is a major gap between the information provided by climate model projections and the information needed by decision makers responsible for adapting to climate change. Of particular concern is the proper representation of uncertainty in downscaled climate model projections.

The UKCP09 climate scenarios for the UK made use of a ~300 member ensemble of the Hadley Centre's HadCM3 GCM coupled with 25km resolution regional climate model (RCM) outputs. A probabilistic representation of uncertainty was provided from an innovative Bayesian methodology (Murphy et al 2007). Though ground-breaking in methodological terms, the UKCP09 scenarios suffer from a number of deficiencies. In particular (i) the experimental design limited the number of observational constraints that could be employed to estimate uncertainties and (ii) the use of only 11 RCM runs to downscale the climate projections limited the credibility for the analysis of extreme or spatially correlated events. The large ensemble of RCM outputs available from the weatherathome experiment provides the potential to circumvent these limitations of UKCP09 and thus provide improved projections and associated uncertainty estimates.

The proposed research will seek to adapt the probabilistic framework proposed by Murphy et al (2007), significantly improving upon its implementation and results by making use of the large ensemble of GCM and RCM outputs available from climateprediction.net and weatherathome. Particular foci of attention will be:

1. Augmenting the number of observational constraints used in the Bayesian calibration procedure, in order to constrain better the predictive uncertainties.
2. Improved methodology for initialisation of the ocean model in order to better constrain uncertainties, in particular in the near term.
3. Development of methodology to use Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in concert with an emulator of the climateprediction.net ensemble.
4. Use of the weatherathome ensemble to generate improved regional scale and transient probabilistic outputs, including a large weighted ‘event set’ for use in climate impacts and adaptation studies.

The project will require understanding of climate physics and modelling as well as development of statistical methodology, so would suit a student from a physics or statistics background.

References
"A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles", J.M.Murphy et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007) 365, 1993-2028 doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but the project may attract some industrial funding so a successful applicant will be given advice in arranging this funding. Applicants in need of financial support are also encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Explore possible funding opportunities. This DPhil is eligible for one of the departmental NERC studentships. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

An international comparison of voluntary green electricity tariffs

Supervisor: Dr Nick Eyre

The primary drivers for increasing the supply and use of electricity from renewable sources in most countries are statutory policies such as Feed-in Tariffs, Renewable Obligations on energy companies and a variety of fiscal incentives. However, there are also voluntary schemes through which environmentally concerned individual and business customers can purchase renewable electricity, usually at a premium rate. In many countries, there are scheme to accredit such ‘green tariffs’, in order to ensure customer confidence in the transparency and additionality of these tariffs. One of the most interesting aspects of this mixed economy of incentives is the interaction between public policy and voluntary schemes.

The proposed doctoral project will undertake a global assessment of voluntary green tariffs, their scope, regulation and effectiveness. It will do so initially by review of the publically available literature and scheme rules. It is expected this will identify interesting cases which will then form the focus of fieldwork case studies. These will involve interviewing key stakeholders in the scheme, e.g. green suppliers, customers, policy makers and scheme accreditation agencies. The analysis will seek to identify the relationship between electricity market characteristics (including renewable electricity market penetration), the scale and form of public policy incentives, voluntary green tariff rules. The work will involve both quantitative and qualitative assessment and draw on a range of insights such as from public policy analysis, economics and marketing.

The project is inter-disciplinary. The primary disciplinary background could be physical science, social science engineering or economics; the priority is strong analytical skills and a commitment to work across wide ranging disciplinary perspectives. The student must be willing to engage with the practical realities of renewable energy markets, business models and policy making whilst also being capable of undertaking fieldwork with decision makers and rigorous analysis.

The studentship will be supervised by Dr Nick Eyre in the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) of the University of Oxford, who is also a member of the independent panel that oversees the UK Green Energy Supply Certification Scheme. The student will be based in the Lower Carbon Futures Team of the ECI and will benefit from being part of a team with extensive links on sustainable energy with research, industry and government.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

New developments in household energy efficiency policy in the UK

Supervisor: Dr Nick Eyre

Oxford University is leading the Demand Theme of the UK Energy Research Centre, which is the major project of the UK Research Council’s Energy Programme in the field of whole systems, inter-disciplinary energy research. This provides the ECI with a good overview of energy demand activities and research within the UK.

It is clear that the current UK energy efficiency policy context is very fluid with a number of new policies due to be introduced in 2012 and 2103, including “The Green Deal” and “The Energy Company Obligation”. These mark a substantial change from the existing policy regime in a number of ways, notably the explicit aim of supporting higher cost energy efficiency technologies in housing and an attempt to engage new sources of private sector finance. There are therefore major research opportunities in understanding the proposed changes, the transition and the roles of key actors in delivering the changes.

The proposed doctoral project will explore the effectiveness of the new policy instruments through the use of mixed methods, but primarily through qualitative research with key stakeholders (both existing and new) as well as quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the new policy framework.

The project is inter-disciplinary so could suit a student from a variety of different backgrounds including building physics, policy studies and economics. The student will need to engage with the technical and management issues related to energy efficiency projects on the ground, to assess technical and economic data and be capable of using theoretical ideas around behavioural, social and policy change.

The studentship will be supervised by Dr Nick Eyre in the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) of the University of Oxford. The student will be based in the Lower Carbon Futures Team of the ECI and will benefit from their links with research and government. The work will be able to draw on other ongoing research within the group on energy saving in UK households, notably upon the changing role of different trades and professions (in "Building Expertise" ), and the work of local community groups (in "EVALOC" ).

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Saving energy and saving water – a comparative study in policy and regulation

Supervisor: Dr Nick Eyre

Oxford University is leading the Demand Theme of the UK Energy Research Centre, which is the major project of the UK Research Council’s Energy Programme in the field of whole systems, inter-disciplinary energy research. This provides the ECI with a good overview of energy demand activities and research within the UK. In addition ECI and the School of Geography host substantial activities in the water sector. The two programmes have historically been separate, but are developing links, in particular through the work of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) led by Professor Jim Hall.

Both energy and water systems in the UK face increasing stresses from climate change. In the water sector concerns focus on the impacts of projected changes to water availability, i.e. climate adaptation. In the energy sector, the predominant concern is climate mitigation. Both point to an increased emphasis on resource conservation with a stronger role for investment and behavioural change by final consumers, i.e. increased water and energy efficiency. Despite the commonalities, there is little tradition of policy cross-learning between the sectors in the UK. The energy sector has developed substantial supplier funded programmes in home energy efficiency and is now planning a full roll out of ‘smart meters’ for both gas and electricity. The water sector has focussed more strongly on addressing leakage, with some consumer advice on conservation, but it has no substantial tradition of supplier funded conservation measures in homes, nor plans for full deployment of metering.

The project will explore the differences in approach to resource conservation between the two sectors. This will include a historical assessment of policy development, with particular attention to the role of the economic and environmental regulators. It will also undertake an assessment of the potential for each sector to learn from the other in the UK and from conservation programmes in selected other countries. This will require analysis of planned regulatory change and expected ‘demand side’ programme activity. It will involve development of a model to project the potential for change in each sector if technical and behavioural programmes learn from the experiences of each other. Qualitative methods to engage with industry stakeholders and policy makers will also be involved. The work is expected to build on existing analytical and modelling work within the ITRC.

The project is intrinsically inter-disciplinary as well as cross-sectoral and so could suit a student from a variety of different backgrounds including civil engineering, building physics, policy studies and economics. The student will need to engage with the technical and management issues related to resource conservation projects, to assess complex technical and economic data, develop resource use models and to understand theoretical ideas around behavioural, social and policy change.

The studentship will be supervised by Dr Nick Eyre in the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) of the University of Oxford. The student will be based in the Lower Carbon Futures Team of the ECI and will benefit from the links between ECI and research, industry and government.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

The ecosystem functioning of intact and disturbed tropical forests

Supervisor: Professor Yadvinder Malhi

The studentship will explore the ecosystem functioning of tropical forests, and the response of this functioning to disturbances such as drought, fire and logging. The work will be based around collection of field data from some of our network in sites in Amazonia, Africa and Borneo (with Africa and Borneo a particular focus), and will involve field studies, lab analyses of plant traits, and development and application of ecosystem models. There will be opportunities for travel and extended periods of work in tropical forest regions. Candidate students should have a quantitative science background in either physical, biological or environmental sciences.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but this DPhil is eligible for one of the departmental NERC studentships. Applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

The response of tropical forests to climate change

Supervisor: Professor Yadvinder Malhi

This studentship will focus on development of models to explore the sensitivity of tropical forests (in Amazonia and tropical Africa) to global atmospheric change. The work will involved improvement and development of an ecosystem model, closely informed by ongoing collection of field data from our network of tropical forest sites. The studentship will also explore the application of individual trait-based models, and will have the occasional opportunity for short fielwork sessions

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but this DPhil is eligible for one of the departmental NERC studentships. Applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.

Evaluation of changes in energy use and carbon emissions of walking and cycling interventions

Supervisor: Dr Christian Brand

Background

Oxford University is leading the energy and carbon theme of the EPSRC funded iConnect project, which is a major 5-year project of the UK Research Council’s Energy Programme in the field of walking and cycling research (Impact of COnstructing Non-motorised Networks and Evaluating Changes in Travel, www.iconnect.ac.uk). This provides the ECI and TSU with a good overview of walking and cycling activities and research within the UK and beyond.

While reducing energy use and carbon emissions of car usage by reducing the frequency and volume of travel is likely to form a key component of a successful strategy to mitigate climate change and improve energy security, there is little robust evidence to what extent investing in walking and cycling can positively contribute to these multiple policy goals. Research from the Sustainable Travel Town demonstration projects in England suggests that about half of all trips currently made by car in urban areas could in principle be shifted to walking, cycling or public transport.

Research content

The doctoral research will explore the changes in energy use and carbon emissions of a small number of walking and cycling projects in the UK, including creating new crossings and bridges to overcome barriers such as busy roads and rivers in Cardiff and Kenilworth, giving people easier and healthier access to their schools, shops, parks and countryside. Framed within the wider iConnect study, the project will use a longitudinal, panel/cohort design to data collection and analysis. The student will have the opportunity to use the large datasets being collected as part of the iConnect study at three case study sites: Cardiff, Kenilworth and Southampton. The rich datasets include time series of travel behaviour and physical activity data, private vehicle details, perceptions of the built and social environments, and socio-demographic data. By the time the student enters his or her second year, the third wave of data will have been collected, allowing for evaluation of changes in outcomes and, in particular, assessment of the sustainability of any effects over time.

Student profile

The project is intrinsically inter-disciplinary (environmental, social) as well as cross-sectoral (transport, energy) and so could suit a student from a variety of different backgrounds including environmental science, civil engineering, transport geography, travel behaviour and economics. The student will need to engage with the technical and policy issues related to transport planning projects, to assess complex social and environmental data, develop statistical models of change and to understand theoretical ideas around behavioural, environmental and social change.

The studentship will be supervised by Dr Christian Brand in the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) and Transport Studies Unit (TSU) of the University of Oxford. The student will be based either in the Lower Carbon Futures Team of the ECI or the Transport Studies Unit.

There is no funding directly associated with this studentship, but this DPhil is eligible for one of the departmental NERC studentships. Applicants in need of financial support are encouraged to apply for one of Oxford’s several doctoral scholarship schemes for UK or overseas students. Closing dates apply on these schemes and students are encouraged to apply early. Applications are made through the School of Geography and the Environment: Full deatils on the applications process.