Visioning and Backcasting for Transport Futures in Chinese Cities
This research project will analyse policy pathways and business models to support sustainable transport in China. Transport provides essential infrastructure for development and is often viewed as "the maker and breaker of cities" yet it is the most difficult sector within which to reduce CO2. The rapid and large-scale urbanisation of China and tremendous increasing in demand for vehicles provides an unprecedented and urgent opportunity to "leapfrog" existing technology and tackle mobility on a grand scale, both for China and other economies that follow in its footsteps.
This project will use visioning and backcasting approaches to examine possible futures, outline policy options, and test the feasibility of balancing competing priorities with a sustainable, low-carbon transport system. Backcasting approaches have been developed to look at normative scenarios and explore their feasibility and implications for the longer-term future. The analysis will involve different stakeholders in a participatory process, and their inputs will help shape and modify the visions and the policy pathways.
The research is among the first six projects that will receive funding under the Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities, which is funded by the Centre for Studies in Property Valuation and Management Trust with matching funding from the Oxford Martin School.
This project is led by the University of Oxford Transport Studies Unit (TSU) in collaboration with ECI, and the Shandong Institute for Development Strategy of Science and Technology at the Shandong Academy of Science. The project will run from April 2010 to March 2011.
For more information about this research, please contact: jimin.zhao@ouce.ox.ac.uk