Dr Neil Massey
Neil joined the ECI in 2014 to work on the CREDIBLE project and the EUCLEIA project. He also advises on the climate modelling aspects of the MaRIUS project.
Under the CREDIBLE project, Neil is producing a comprehensive and seamless timeseries of climate variable data from 1899 to 2100 over the UK, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These projections take into account the uncertainty in the global mean temperature response to the greenhouse gas forcings in the CMIP5 ensemble.
Under the EUCLEIA project, Neil is investigating the sensitivity of extreme event attribution statements to the structure of the experimental design, climate model and analysis.
Neil has worked on the climateprediction.net project for over 10 years was responsible for coordinating the launch of weather@home (w@h) in 2010. weather@home is the only regional climate modelling system that is run on citizen scientist’s home computers, and is capable of producing many thousands of years of regional weather.
Neil is the producer and maintainer of OxPEWWES – the Oxford Probabilistic European Winter Windstorm Event Set. This uses the output from w@h to produce a probabilistic event set of potential winter windstorm events over Europe for 1986 to 2010. Windstorm events are identified in the w@h output and the peak 3 second gust over 72 hours is recorded as a windstorm footprint. Due to the large ensembles that are possible under w@h, there are over 80,000 potential windstorms in the OxPEWWES catalogue.
Neil previously was a member of the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment from 2010 to 2013, and studied for his DPhil in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics from 2005 to 2009. Prior to this he was part of the Computing Lab (now Department of Computing Science) from 2003 to 2004.
- Guillod, B., Massey, N., Otto, F., Allen, M., Jones, R. and Hall, J. (2016) Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.
- Guillod, B.P., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Jones, R.G., Massey, N.R., Mitchell, D.M., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S., Uhe, P., Wallom, D.C.H., Wilson, S., Allen, M.R. (2016) weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions.
- Massey, N. (2016) Feature tracking in high-resolution regional climate data. Computers and Geosciences, 93: 36-44.
- Massey, N., Allen, M. and Hall, J. (2016) Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.
- Mitchell, D., Davini, P., Harvey, B., Massey, N., Haustein, K., Woolings, T., Jones, R., Otto, F., Guillod, B., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. and Allen, M. (2016) Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems. Climate Dynamics.
- Rupp, D., Li, S., Mote, P., Massey, N., Sparrow, S. and Wallom, D. (2016) Full Access Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central US in 2012. Journal of Climate.
- Rupp, D.E., Li, S., Mote, P.W., Shell, K.M., Massey, N., Sparrow, S.N., Wallom, D.C.H. and Allen, M. (2016) Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US. Climate Dynamics.
- Schaller, N., Kay, A.L., Lamb, R., Massey, N.R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E.L., Sparrow, S.N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ashpole, I., Bowery, A., Crooks, S.M., Haustein, K., Huntingford, C., Ingram, W.J., Jones, R.G., Legg, T., Miller, J., Skeggs, J., Wallom, D., Weisheimer, A., Wilson, S., Stott, P.A. and Allen, M.R. (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change.
- Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F.E.L., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2015) Weather@home - development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(690): 1528-1545.
- Mera, R., Massey, N., Rupp, D.E., Mote, P., Allen, M., Frumhoff, P.C. (2015) Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley. Climatic Change, 133(3): 427-438.
- Otto, F.E.L., Rosier, S.M., Allen, M.R., Massey, N.R., Rye, C.J. and Quintana, J.I. (2015) Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change.
- Rosier, S., Dean, S., Stuart, S., Carey-Smith, T., Black, M.T. and Massey, N. (2015) Extreme rainfall in early July 2014 in Northland,New Zealand - was there an anthropogenic influence? In, Explaining Extreme Events of 2014: From a Climate Perspective. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol 96, No 12, December 2015. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. pp. 136-140.
- Rupp, D.E., Li, N., Massey, S.N., Sparrow, S.N., Mote, P.W. and Allen, M. (2015) Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in texas, 2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(7): 2392-2400.
- Añel, J.A., López-Moreno, J.I., Otto, F.E.L., Vicente-Serrano, S., Schaller, N., Massey, N., Buisán, S.T. and Allen, M.R. (2014) The extreme snow accumulation in the western Spanish Pyrenees during winter and spring 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(9).
- Huntingford, C., Marsh, T., Scaife, A.A., Kendon, E., Hannaford, J., Kay, A., Lockwood, M., Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N., Parry, S., Lowe, J., Screen, J., Ward, H., Roberts, M., Stott, P., Bell, V., Bailey, M., Jenkins, A., Legg, T., Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., Schaller, N., Slingo, J. and Allen, M.R. (2014) Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4: 769-777.
- Schaller, N., Otto, F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Massey, N., Sparrow, S. (2014) The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins. In, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 no.9. pp. 69-72.
- Yamazaki, K., Rowlands, D.J., Aina, T., Blaker, A.T., Bowery, A., Massey, N., Miller, J., Rye, C., Tett, S.F.B., Williamson, D., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Obtaining diverse behaviors in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, 118(7): 2781-2793.
Massey, N, (2012). Feature tracking on the hierarchical equal area triangular mesh. COMPUTERS and GEOSCIENCES, 44, 42-51
N Massey, T Aina, C Rye, FEL Otto, S Wilson, RG Jones, MR Allen (2012) Have the odds of warm November temperatures and of cold December temperatures in Central England changed. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93, 1057-1059
Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G. & Allen, M. R. Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39(4)
D.J. Rowlands, D.J. Frame, D. Ackerley, T. Aina, B.B.B. Booth, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, C.E. Forest, B.S. Grandey, E. Gryspeerdt, E.J. Highwood, W.J. Ingram, S. Knight, A. Lopez, N. Massey, F. McNamara, N. Meinshausen, C. Piani, S.M. Rosier, B.M. Sanderson, L.A. Smith, D.A. Stone, M. Thurston, K. Yamazaki, H. Yamazaki & M.R. Allen (2012) Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 2012. Doi:10.1038/NGEO1430.
Rupp DE,; Mote PW,; Massey M,; Rye CJ,; Jones R,; Allen MR. (2012) Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93 (7): 1052–1054.
Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D. A. Stainforth, M. R. Allen, Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104 (30), 12259–12264 July 2007. Doi:10.1073/pnas.0608144104.
N. Massey, T. Aina, M. Allen, C. Christensen, D. Frame, D. Goodman, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe & D. Stainforth. (2006) Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences 8 (2006) 49-56.