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 School of Geography and the Environment

Professor Jim Hall

Professor Jim Hall

Position:

Director, Environmental Change Institute;
Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks, School of Geography and the Environment;
Senior Research Fellow, Department of Engineering Science;
Fellow of Linacre College.

Contact:

e:director@eci.ox.ac.uk
t: 01865 275847 (Sue King, PA)

Member:

ECI Climate Research Theme

General Profile

Professor Jim Hall FREng is Director of the Environmental Change Institute, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks in the School of Geography and the Environment, a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Engineering Science and fellow of Linacre College. His research focuses upon management of climate-related risks in infrastructure systems, in particular relating to various dimensions of water security, including flooding and water scarcity. He moved to the University of Oxford in 2011 having previously held academic positions in Newcastle University and the University of Bristol. He has been awarded the George Stephenson Medal, the Robert Alfred Carr Prize and the Frederick Palmer Prize of the Institution of Civil Engineers for his work on flooding and coastal erosion, and the Lloyds Science of Risk prize for the work of his team on climate risk analysis. Jim Hall is a member of the UK independent Committee on Climate Change Adaptation and is co-chair of the Global Water Partnership / OECD Task Force on the Economics of Water Security and Sustainable Growth.

Beginning his academic careers as a Royal Academy of Engineering research fellow, Jim developed the theoretical basis for the flood risk assessment methods that are now widely used in the UK and internationally. He was a coordinating lead author in the OST’s Foresight project on Flood and Coastal Defence, which analysed risks and responses to flooding and coastal erosion in the UK over the period 2030-2100. He also developed the framework for uncertainty analysis in appraisal of options for protecting London from flooding over the 21st Century, as part of the Environment Agency’s Thames Estuary 2100 project.

Jim has published two books on flooding: Flood Risk Management in Europe: Innovation in Policy and Practice (Springer, 2007) and Applied Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management (Imperial College Press, 2013). He is Associate Editor of the Journal of Flood Risk Management, member of the ESRA Technical Committee on Safety from Natural Hazards and was until 2009 chairman of the International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research committee on Probabilistic Methods. In 2010 Jim was elected as a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering "for his contribution to the development of methods for flood risk analysis, which underpin approaches for flood risk management in the UK and internationally."

Jim has worked extensively on application of generalized theories of probability to civil engineering and environmental systems, including random set theory, the theory of imprecise probabilities and info-gap theory. The work has been particularly fruitful in the analysis of uncertainties relating to global climate modelling, yielding a paper in in PNAS that has been cited more than 1000 times.

Jim was a Contributing Author to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Amongst other projects, he led the ARCADIA project that developed methodology and tools for quantified analysis of climate risks in London. He was until 2010 Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, leading the Tyndall Centre’s research programme on climate change and cities, which yielded a highly innovative integrated assessment of climate change adaptation and mitigation in London.

Jim now leads the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium, which is funded by a £4.7million Programme Grant for EPSRC and is developing and demonstrating a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure. Jim is a member of the panel conducting the Institution of Civil Engineer’s 2014 State of the Nation’s Infrastructure Assessment and also sits on the ICE Public Voice Committee. He is a member of the Engineering Policy Committee of the Royal Academy of Engineering.

Current research interests

  1. Climate adaptation decisions. Engineering adaptation to global change. Decision analysis. Robust decision making under uncertainty. Info-gap theory. Decision support for futures and scenarios analysis.
  2. Integrated assessment of coupled human and natural systems. National assessment of infrastructure systems. Infrastructure systems reliability and interdependence. Integrated assessment of long term change in cities. Methodologies for uncertainty analysis in integrated assessments.
  3. Uncertainty representation in modelling and risk analysis of engineering and environmental systems. Random set and imprecise probability theories. Sensitivity analysis and model calibration.
  4. Flood risk analysis and management. Broad scale flood risk analysis. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems. Advanced sampling based methods. Impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flood risk. Robust flood risk management decisions under uncertainty.
  5. Coastal erosion prediction and appraisal. Simplified process-based modelling of coastal system evolution over extended time and space scales. Stochastic simulation of coastal cliff recession. Use of probabilistic information in coastal management. Impacts of sea level rise.

Current research projects

Selected research publications

2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
  • Beck, M.B., Jiang, F., Shi, F., Walker, R.V., Osidele, O.O., Lin, Z., Demir, I. and Hall, J.W. (2010) Re-engineering cities as forces for good in the environment. Proceedings of the ICE - Engineering Sustainability, 163(1): 31-46.
  • Hall, J.W. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (2010) Setting the scene for flood risk management. Chapter 1 in, Pender, G. and H. Faulkner (eds.) Flood Risk Science and Management. Wiley-Blackwell. pp. 3-18. ISBN: 9781405186575.
  • Hall, J.W. and Pidgeon, N. (2010) A systems view of climate change. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 27(3): 243-253.
  • Hall, J.W. and Street, R. (2010) Strategic research on climate impacts and adaptation for infrastructure, the built environment and utilities: eight years of progress and future prospects. Engineering Sustainability, 163(1): 7-8.
  • Hine, D. and Hall, J.W. (2010) Information-gap analysis of flood model uncertainties and regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 46(W01514).
  • Merz, B., Hall, J.W., Disse, M. and Schumann, A. (2010) Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(3): 509-527.
2009
  • Buijs, F.A., Hall, J.W., Sayers, P.B. and Van Gelder, P. (2009) Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(12): 1942-1953.
  • Dawson, R.J., Dickson, M.E., Nicholls, R.J., Hall, J.W., Walkden, M.J.A., Stansby, P., Mokrech, M., Richards, J., Zhou, J., Milligan, J., Jordan, A., Pearson, S., Rees, J., Bates, P., Koukoulas, S. and Watkinson, A. (2009) Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change. Climatic Change, 95(1-2): 249-288.
  • Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Barr, S.L., Batty, M., Bristow, A.L., Carney, S., Dagoumas, A., Evans, S., Ford, A.C., Köhler, J., Tight, M.R., Walsh, C.L., Watters, H. and Zanni, A.M. (2009) A blueprint for the integrated assessment of climate change in cities. In, Tang, K. (ed.) Green CITYnomics. The urban war against climate change. Greenleaf Publishing, Sheffield. pp. 32-52.
  • Glendinning, S., Hall, J.W. and Manning, L. (2009) Asset-management strategies for infrastructure embankments. Proceedings of the ICE - Engineering Sustainability, 162: 111-120.
  • Hall, J.W. (2009) Integrated assessment to support regional and local scale decision making. In, Davoudi, S., Crawford, J. and Mehmood, A. (eds.) Planning for Climate Change: Strategies for mitigation and adaptation for spatial planners. Earthscan Publishing, London. pp. 236-248.
  • Hall, J.W., Boyce, S.M., Wang, Y., Dawson, R.J., Tarantola, S. and Saltelli, A. (2009) Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic models. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 135(11): 959-969.
  • Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Held, H., Dawson, R.J. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(13): 5041-5046.
  • Manning, L.J., Hall, J.W., Fowler, H.J., Kilsby, C.G., Tebaldi, C. and others (2009) Using probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel ensemble for water resources assessment. Water Resources Research, 45(11).
2008
  • Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Bates, P.D. and Nicholls, R.J. (2008) Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames Estuary under imaginable worst case sea-level rise scenarios. In, Gopalakrishnan, C. and Okada, N. (eds.) Water and Disasters. Routeledge, London. pp. 36-50.
  • Dawson, R.J., Speight, L., Hall, J.W., Djordjevic, S., Savic, D., Le and ro, J. (2008) Attribution of flood risk in urban areas. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 10(4): 275-288.
  • Hall, J.W. and Solomatine, D. (2008) A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2): 85-98.
  • Harvey, D.E., Peppe, R. and Hall, J.W. (2008) Reframe: A Framework Supporting Flood Risk Analysis. Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2): 163-174.
  • Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(6): 1786-1793.
  • Liang, Q., Du, G., Hall, J.W. and Borthwick, A.G.L. (2008) Flood inundation modeling with an adaptive quadtree grid shallow water equation solver. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 134(11): 1603-1610.
  • Lonsdale, K.G., Downing, T.E., Nicholls, R.J., Parker, D., Vafeidis, A.T., Dawson, R. and Hall, J. (2008) Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise in the Thames Estuary. Climatic Change, 91(1): 145-169.
  • Manning, L.J., Hall, J.W., Kilsby, C.G., Glendinning, S. and Anderson, M.G. (2008) Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall-induced landslides. Hydrological Processes, 22(17): 3349-3360.
  • Marashi, S.E., Davis, J.P. and Hall, J.W. (2008) Combination methods and conflict handling in evidential theories. International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge Based Systems, 16(3): 337-369.
2007
  • 1) Evans, E.P., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.C. and Thorne, C.R. (2007) Chapter 1: Overview. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 3-12.
  • 2) Hall, J.W., Simm, J.D. and Evans, E.P. (2007) Chapter 2: Introduction to the Foresight ‘Future Flooding’ methodology. In, Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 13-28.
  • 3) Simm, J.D., Thorne, C.R. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Chapter 12: Driver impact scoring, ranking and uncertainty. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 185-206.
  • 4) Hall, J.W., Sayers, P.B., Panzeri, M. and Deakin, R. (2007) Chapter 13: Quantified assessment of driver impacts on future flood risk in England and Wales. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 209-226.
  • 5) Sayers, P.B., Hall, J.W., Panzeri, M. and Deakin, R. (2007) Chapter 25: Quantified analysis of future flood risk management portfolios in England and Wales. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 433-458.
  • 6) Watkinson, A.R., Evans, E.P., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E.C. and Thorne, C.R. (2007) Chapter 28: Strategic Choices. In, Thorne, C.R., Evans, E.P. and Penning-Rowsell, E.C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks. Thomas Telford, London. pp. 491-504.
  • Begum, S., Stive, M.J.F. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Flood Risk Management in Europe: Innovation in Policy and Practice. Springer, London. ISBN: 978-1-4020-4199-0.
  • Dickson, M.E., Walkden, M.J.A. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Systemic impacts of climate change on an eroding coastal region over the twenty-first century. Climatic Change, 84(2): 141-166.
  • Goodess, C.M., Hall, J.W., Best, M., Betts, R., Cabantous, L., Jones, P.D., Kilsby, C.G., Pearman, A. and Wallace, C.J. (2007) Climate scenarios and decision making under uncertainty. Built Environment, 33(1): 10-30.
  • Hall, J.W. (2007) Probabilistic climate scenarios may misrepresent uncertainty and lead to bad adaptation decisions. Hydrological Processes, 21: 1127-1129.
  • Hall, J.W. and O'Connell, E. (2007) Earth systems engineering: turning vision into action. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Civil engineering, 160(3): 114-122.
  • Hall, J.W., Fu, G. and Lawry, J. (2007) Imprecise probabilities of climate change: aggregation of fuzzy scenarios and model uncertainties. Climatic Change, 81(3): 265-281.
  • Nicholls, R.J., Tol, R.S.J. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea level rise. In, Schlesinger, M., Kheshgi, H., Smith, J.B., de la Chesnaye, F., Reilly, J.M., Wilson, T. and Kolstad, C.D. (eds.) Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment. Cambridge University Press.
2006
  • Dawson, R. and Hall, J. (2006) Adaptive importance sampling for risk analysis of complex infrastructure systems. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Science, 462(2075): 3343-3362.
  • Evans, E., Hall, J.W., Penning-Rowsell, E., Sayers, P., Thorne, C. and Watkinson, A. (2006) Future flood risk management in the UK. Water Management, 159(1): 53-61.
  • Hall, J.W. (2006) Soft methods in Earth Systems Engineering. In, Lawry, J., Miranda, E., Bugarin, A., Shoumei, L., Gil, M-A., Grzegorzewski, P., Hryniewicz, O. (ed.) Soft Methods for Integrated Uncertainty Modelling. Springer, Berlin. pp. 7-10.
  • Hall, J.W. (2006) Uncertainty-based sensitivity indices for imprecise probability distributions. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 91(10): 1443-1451.
  • Hall, J.W., Dawson, R., Manning, L., Walkden, M.J., Dickson, M. and Sayers, P. (2006) Managing changing risks to infrastructure systems. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Civil engineering, 159: 21-27.
  • Hall, J.W., Sayers, P.B., Walkden, M.J.A. and Panzeri, M. (2006) Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England Wales: 2030--2100. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364(1841): 1027-1049.
  • Hamm, N.A.S., Hall, J.W. and Anderson, M.G. (2006) Variance-based sensitivity analysis of the probability of hydrologically induced slope instability. Computers and geosciences, 32(6): 803-817.
2005
  • Bates, P.D., Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W. and Horritt, M.S., Nicholls, R.J., Wicks, J.K. and Hassan, M. (2005) Simplified two-dimensional modelling of coastal flooding for risk assessment and planning. Coastal Engineering, 52: 793-810.
  • Dawson, R., Hall, J.W., Sayers, P., Bates, P. and Rosu, C. (2005) Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6): 388-402.
  • Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W., Bates, P.D. and Nicholls, R.J. (2005) Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames Estuary under imaginable worst-case sea level rise scenarios. Water resources development, 21(4): 577-591.
  • Hall, J.W., Sayers, P.B. and Dawson, R.J. (2005) National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England Wales. Natural Hazards, 36(1): 147-164.
  • Hall, J.W., Tarantola, S., Bates, P.D. and Horritt, M.S. (2005) Distributed sensitivity analysis of flood inundation model calibration. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 131(2): 117-126.
  • Hall, J.W., Twyman, C. and Kay, A. (2005) Influence diagrams for representing uncertainty in climate-related propositions. Climatic change, 69(2): 343-365.
  • Walkden, M.J.A and Hall, J.W. (2005) A predictive mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores. Coastal Engineering, 52(6): 535-563.
2004
  • Dawson, R.J., Hall, J.W. and Davis, J.P. (2004) A performance-based decision-support process for flood defence asset management. Water Management, 157: 35-44.
  • Hall, J.W. and Lawry, J. (2004) Generation, combination and extension of random set approximations to coherent lower and upper probabilities. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 85(1): 89-101.
  • Hall, J.W., Le Masurier, J.W., Baker-Langman, E.A., Davis, J.P. and Taylor, C.A. (2004) A decision-support methodology for performance-based asset management. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 21(1): 51-75.
  • Hall, J.W., Rubio, E. and Anderson, M.G. (2004) Random sets of probability measures in slope hydrology and stability analysis. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 84(10-11): 710-720.
  • Lawry, J., Hall, J.W. and Bovey, R. (2004) Fusion of expert and learnt knowledge in a framework of fuzzy labels. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 36(2): 151-198.
  • Rubio, E., Hall, J.W. and Anderson, M.G. (2004) Uncertainty analysis in a slope hydrology and stability model using probabilistic and imprecise information. Computers and Geotechnics, 31(7): 529-536.
2003
  • Davis, J.P. and Hall, J.W. (2003) A software-supported process for assembling evidence and handling uncertainty in decision-making. Decision Support Systems, 35(3): 415-433.
  • Hall, J.H., Dawson, R.J., Sayers, P.B., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J.B. and Deakin, R. (2003) A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Water and Maritime Engineering, 156(3): 235-247.
  • Hall, J.W. (2003) Handling uncertainty in the hydroinformatic process. Hydroinformatics, 5(4): 215-232.
  • Hall, J.W. and Lawry, J. (2003) Fuzzy label methods for constructing imprecise limit state functions. Structural Safety, 25(4): 317-342.
  • Hall, J.W., Evans, E.P., Penning-Rowsell, E.C., Sayers, P.B., Thorne, C.R. and Saul, A.J. (2003) Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England Wales: 2030-2100. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 5(3-4): 51-65.
  • Hall, J.W., Meadowcroft, I.C., Sayers, P.B. and Bramley, M.E. (2003) Integrated flood risk management in England Wales. Natural Hazards Review, 4(3): 126-135.
2002
  • Hall, J.W. (2002) A contingency approach to choice. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 19(2): 87-118.
  • Hall, J.W. and Anderson, M.G. (2002) Handling uncertainty in extreme or unrepeatable hydrological processes - the need for an alternative paradigm. Hydrological Processes, 16(9): 1867-1870.
  • Hall, J.W., Meadowcroft, I.C., Lee, E.M. and van Gelder, P.H. (2002) Stochastic simulation of episodic soft coastal cliff recession. Coastal Engineering, 46(3): 159-174.
  • Lee, E., Meadowcroft, I., Hall, J.W. and Walkden, M. (2002) Coastal landslide activity: a probabilistic simulation model. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 61(4): 347-355.
  • Sayers, P.B., Hall, J.W. and Meadowcroft, I.C. (2002) Towards risk-based flood hazard management in the UK. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Civil Engineering, 150: 36-42.
2001
  • Hall, J.W. and Davis, J.P. (2001) Sources and implications of uncertainty for coastal managers. Water and Environment Journal, 15(2): 103-108.
  • Hall, J.W., Cruickshank, I.C. and Godfrey, P.S. (2001) Software-supported risk management for the construction industry. Civil Engineering, 144: 42-48.
  • Lee, E.M., Hall, J.W. and Meadowcroft, I.C. (2001) Coastal cliff recession: the use of probabilistic prediction methods. Geomorphology, 40(3): 253-269.
2000
  • Hall, J.W., Lee, E.M. and Meadowcroft, I.C. (2000) Risk-based benefit assessment of coastal cliff recession. Water and Maritime Engineering, 142: 127-139.
1998
  • Hall, J.W., Blockley, D.I. and Davis, J.P. (1998) Uncertain inference using interval probability theory. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 19(3): 247-264.