Profile

Dave Frame looks at how uncertainties in predictions of global climate change models can affect climate policy. He is interested in using recent and future global warming rates to improve the questions policy makers ask, as well as working on ways of quantifying the uncertainties in the answers to those questions.

Research Interests

Policy implications of the transient climate response, alternatives to stabilisation scenarios, ensemble climate forecasts and what they might imply.

Teaching

Dave is a College Lecturer in Physical Geography, Jesus College. He teaches physical climatology, some statistics and a little about chaos and related fields to undergraduates.

Recent Publications

Allen, M., Frame, D. (2007)Abandon the Quest! Uncertainty in climate sensitivity—the long-term warming response to doubling carbon dioxide may not be a problem after all, unless the politicians choose to turn it into one. Science Vol 318. p582-583

D. J. Frame, N. E. Faull, M. M. Joshi & M. R. Allen, Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2069 2007.

D. Frame and M. Allen, Climate Change and Global Risk, Chapter in Global Catastrophic Risks, N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovic eds. Oxford University Press: Oxford, forthcoming, 2007.

C. G. Knight, S. H. E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D. A. Stainforth, M. R. Allen, Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models, PNAS, July 2007.

M. Allen, P. Pall, D. Stone, P. Stott, D. Frame, S.-K. Min, T. Nozawa, and S. Yukimoto. 2007. Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm to human influence on climate. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 155, 6, 1353-1400, 2007.

M. Boykoff, D. Frame and S. Randalls, Stabilize this! How the discourse of ‘climate stabilization’ became and remains entrenched in climate science-policy/practice interactions, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, submitted, 2007.

C. Piani, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D. Frame, N. Faull and M. Allen, Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multi-thousand, multi-model ensemble of simulations, Journal of Geophysical Research, accepted, 2007.

B. M. Sanderson, R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. M. Christensen, N. E. Faull, D. J. Frame, W. J. Ingram, C. Piani, D. A. Stainforth, D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen, Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the rose of sub-grid scale processes, Journal of Climate, in press, 2007.

D. J. Frame, D. A. Stone, P. A. Stott & M. R. Allen, Alternatives to Climate Sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025801, 2006.

G. C. Hegerl, T. J. Crowley, W. T. Hyde & D. J. Frame Estimating climate sensitivity from paleoclimatic records of the last millennium, Nature, 440, p1029-1032, 2006.

N. Massey, T. Aina, M. Allen, C. Christensen, D. Frame, D. Goodman, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, D. Stainforth Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net Advances in Geosciences 8: 49 – 56, 2006.

M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough & D. A. Stainforth, Model error in weather and climate forecasting, in Predictability in Weather and Climate, T. Palmer & R. Hagedorn, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2006.

D. J. Frame, B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins, and M. R. Allen (2005), Constraining Climate Forecasts: The Role of Prior Assumptions, Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 32, L09702, doi:10.1029/2004GL022241, 2005.

M. Allen, N. Andronova, B. Booth, S. Dessai, D. Frame, C. Forest, J. Gregory, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, C. Piani, D. Sexton and D. Stainforth, Observational Constraints on climate sensitivity, Chapter 29 of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, ISBN-13: 9780521864718, ISBN-10: 0521864712, 2006.

D. A. Stainforth, M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame and C. Piani, Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts, Chapter 33 of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, ISBN-13: 9780521864718, ISBN-10: 0521864712, 2006.

C. Piani, D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth, and M. R. Allen, Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations, Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825, 2005.

D. A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J. M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L. A. Smith, R. A. Spicer, A. J. Thorpe & M. R. Allen, Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, pp.403-406, 2005.

D A. Stainforth, M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, C. C. Christensen, T. Aina and M. Collins, climateprediction.net: a global community for research in climate physics in A. Schaarl, ed., Environmental Online Communication, Springer, London, 2004.

J. P. R. B Walton, D. Frame & D. A. Stainforth, Visualization For Public-Resource Climate Modelling, Data Visualization 2004 (O. Deussen, C. Hansen, D. Keim & D. Saupe, eds.) , pp.103-108, Eurographics Association, 2004.

M. Collins, D. Frame, B. Sinha and C. Wilson, How far ahead could we predict El Nino? Geophysical Research Letters, 29, no. 10, 1492, 2001.

D. J. Frame, B. N. Lawrence, G. J. Fraser, R. A. Vincent and A. Dudhia, A new technique for evaluating mesospheric momentum balance utilizing radars and satellite data, Annales Geophysicae 18, 478-484, 2000.

D. J. Frame, B. N. Lawrence, G. J. Fraser and M. J. Burrage, A comparison between mesospheric wind measurements made near Christchurch using the high resolution Doppler imager and a medium frequency radar, Annales Geophysicae 18, 555-565, 2000.