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Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate
Change (MONARCH)
MONARCH 1
The application of the methodologies to the selected case study
areas will enable the testing and refining of the methodologies,
and also enhance our understanding of the potential impacts of
climate change on habitats and species in these areas. The integrated
outcomes of the models will be assessed for each of the case study
areas, and the policy and management options relating to conservation
objectives considered.
The UK and Irish governments have a range of international and
national commitments to the conservation of species, habitats
and geological features. However, conservation policy will have
to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. Policy modifications
should be founded upon the best possible scientific evidence and
understanding of the implications of climate change on natural
resources. The Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate
Change (MONARCH) project hopes to contribute to this process,
by providing an important first step in understanding complex
interactions between climate change and nature conservation in
the UK and the Republic of Ireland. This study aims to evaluate
impacts of climate change on a broad range of species (including
plants, birds and reptiles) and geological features (including
limestone caves and outcrops) in diverse environments.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
To investigate methods for dividing the UK and Ireland into regions
with similar climatic characteristics and to identify important
conservation resources within each region
To adapt simulation models so that climate change impacts on the
distribution and abundance of species in terrestrial, freshwater,
coastal and marine environments can be studied
To quantify the direct effects of climate change on critical species,
habitats and geological features within each climatic region
To integrate results with those from similar studies to identify
indicators of climate change and challenges for future research
and policy development
METHODOLOGY
The spatial distribution of species is partially a function of
climatic patterns, with species responding to a complex interaction
between climate variables. The spatial variability of biologically
important climatic parameters is being analysed with sophisticated
geo-statistical techniques, such as Principal Components Analysis
(PCA) and clustering algorithms, to develop a climatic zonation
for the UK and the Republic of Ireland (Figure 1).
 Figure
1.
Zones of climatic similarity as defined by principal components
analysis. The four factors represent independent new variables that
"explain" over 92% of the variation of a bioclimatic dataset
of more than 100 variables
These zones will delimit areas of climatic similarity (Figure
2.) which can be used as a starting point for the impacts modelling.
Each of the zones will be characterised by the current distribution
of protected conservation sites and, within each zone, a range
of dominant, sensitive and threatened species will be identified
to study with the impact models.
 Figure
2.
Zones of climatic similarity based on a cluster analysis of
8 bio-climatic factors from the PCA
THE ENVIRONMENTS OF INTEREST
Terrestrial and Freshwater Environments:
The impacts of climatic change on the geographical distribution
of a wide range of species is currently being investigated using
the SPECIES ( Spatial Estimator of the Climatic Impacts on the
Envelope of Species) model, originally developed within the Regional
Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and
North West England (REGIS ) project. SPECIES uses a neural network
(Figure 3.) to characterise the current distribution of terrestrial
species in Europe and to estimate their potential redistribution
under various climate change scenarios in the UK and Ireland.
Since changing patterns of rainfall are especially critical for
lake and river ecosystems, the SPECIES model is also being used
to supplement a wetlands model on the impacts of climatic change
on freshwater species. Additionally, the project is investigating
the likely impacts of climate change on karst geomorphology and
how these impacts will affect the ecology of species within designated
sites.
Schematic diagram of the SPECIES model
Coastal and Marine Environments:
One of the major impacts of climate change on coastal and marine
environments will be rising sea levels which may modify shorelines
by altering the coastal sediment budget. These changes may have
severe impacts on the marine fauna and ecosystems dependent upon
balances in the sediment regime. The project will investigate
the numerous impacts that may affect key estuarine bird species
by synthesising models based on present and future estuary shape
(Figure 4.) with important climatic variables. Conceptual models
are simultaneously being developed to assess the sensitivity of
benthic marine habitats to fluctuations in ocean temperature and
other variables. The geomorphologic sensitivity of coastal habitats
such as sand dunes, salt marshes, vegetated shingle coasts, seagrass
beds and rocky coastal platforms to climate change is also being
explored.
 Figure
4.
Predicted changes in estuary shape due to sea level rise
APPLICATION OF RESULTS
The findings from this study will be used to:
Enhance the capacity of conservation organisations by providing
sound scientifically based advice on the impacts of climate change
on nature conservation
Assist with the development of adaptation strategies and management
options for vulnerable sites
Assist with the determination of policy responses and future research
needs
ensure that timely action is taken to protect and enhance threatened
wildlife and geological features as climate changes
OTHER LINKS
Download
the report for Monarch 1 from the UKCIP website
PARTNERS
Dr. Terry Dawson, Dr. Paula Harrison, Dr. Pam Berry, Environmental
Change Institute, Oxford University
Dr. Jo Hossell, Dr. Alison Riding, ADAS, Wolverhampton
Dr. Heather Viles, School of Geography, University of Oxford
Dr. Humphrey Crick, Dr. Mark Rehfisch, Dr. Graham Austin, British
Trust for Ornithology, Thetford
Barnaby Briggs, Environmental Resources Management, London
PROJECT FUNDERS
English Nature
Countryside Council for Wales
Environment Agency
Environment and Heritage Service (Northern Ireland)
Dúchas The Heritage Service
Joint Nature Conservation Committee
National Parks and Wildlife(Republic of Ireland)
National Trust
National Trust for Scotland
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Scottish Natural Heritage
World Wide Fund For Nature
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