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Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate
Change (MONARCH)
NEW Report: November 2005
The report of the second phase of the Monarch (Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change) project is now available, focussing upon four case study areas in Hampshire, Central Highlands , Snowdonia and Cuilcagh and Pettigo in Ireland . Results suggest that the modelled species response in the study areas does not always reflect the predicted bioclimatic sensitivity and while dominant species may be expected to continue to be dominant in the case study areas, losses in climate space for some are predicted in central and eastern England .
The report shows developments in the scale of bioclimate modelling, land cover, dispersal modelling and conceptual models of ecosystem functioning to complement climate envelope predictions. The impact of climate change on wading birds wintering on estuaries in Hampshire and Suffolk is also examined.
The third phase of the Monarch project is underway, with the modelling of the future climate envelopes of 120 BAP species. Results are expected to be available in autumn 2006.
The full report can be downloaded or ordered from here
April 2003: English Nature has signed a 5-year Research
Agreement with the ECI for the continuation of the MONARCH project.
New research will be agreed on a module-by-module basis in collaboration
with a variety of additional consortium members. The first activities
under the new agreement will be to apply the 'down-scaled methodology'
developed in MONARCH phases 1 and 2 (see below) to four case study
areas: Hampshire, Central Highlands of Scotland, Snowdonia, and
Ireland.
The MONARCH project is a phased investigation into the impacts
of climate change on the natural conservation resources of the
UK and Ireland. It uses an integrated methodology linking established
impact models to coherent climatological classifications and provides
a valuable framework for studying the response of the key biodiversity
elements to human-induced climate change.
MONARCH 1 investigated the impacts of climate change on the nature
conservation resources of Britain and Ireland (Harrison et al.,
2001). MONARCH 2 is building on this by developing generic methodologies
for capturing changes in species' distribution, incorporating
additional factors, such as land use/cover and dispersal capability.
It is also exploring the consequences of such changes for ecosystem
functioning. The methodology is being tested in four case study
areas.
MONARCH Phase 1
Conservation agencies in the UK and Ireland commissioned the MONARCH
study to provide quantitative evidence to complement the biodiversity
assessments already carried out under UKCIP.
This has been achieved through the development of complex computerised
models, which are able to estimate changes in species distribution
under climate change conditions, and detailed analysis of the
model outputs. The study covers the impacts of climate change
on a broad range of species (including plants, birds and amphibians)
and geological features in terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and
marine environments in Britain and Ireland, and considers the
implications for nature conservation policy.
- Phase 1
project outline
- The findings of Phase 1 are now published and are available
for download.
MONARCH Phase 2
Following the success of MONARCH, a second phase is now underway.
Phase 2 will advance the science of predicting possible response
to climate change by adapting the previous approach to a local
scale. The models will incorporate a dispersal component, thus
enabling assessment of the likelihood of species realising their
potential future distributions.
The initial step of MONARCH Phase 2 was the development of a
conceptual and methodological framework able to describe changes
in species' distribution and dispersal, and broad-scale changes
in land use, for local-scale application.
The changing distribution of species has important implications
for habitat composition and, possibly, functioning. The latter
element is being explored at a conceptual level, in the context
of the model outputs, in order to increase our understanding of
the impacts of climate change on ecosystem dynamics. These concepts
are also being incorporated within the new dispersal model.
MONARCH Phase 2 Module 2, will assess the integrated model outcomes
for each of the selected case study areas, and the policy and
management options relating to conservation objectives.
The first two case studies will be developed for Hampshire (including
the New Forest) and the central Highlands of Scotland. Further
case studies have already been proposed for Snowdonia (Wales)
and Fermanagh/Tyrone/Donegal (Ireland). These are all areas of
high vulnerability to climate change with a contrasting ecological
and policy framework in which to evaluate and adopt the Phase
1 models.
The output from the integrated models will thus be a restricted
species' distribution that takes account of climatic suitability,
dispersal capability and land use restrictions. The study will
advance the science of predicting the possible future responses
of species to climate change and the final stage will be to evaluate
possible adaptive responses and policy recommendations.
PARTNERS
Dr.
Terry Dawson, Dr. Paula Harrison, Dr.
Pam Berry, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University
Dr. Jo Hossell, Dr. Alison Riding, ADAS,
Wolverhampton
Dr. Humphrey Crick, Dr. Mark Rehfisch, Dr. Graham Austin, British
Trust for Ornithology, Thetford
Greg Masters, Nicola Ward and Imogen Wilde, CABI
Bioscience
PROJECT FUNDERS
English Nature
Countryside Council for Wales
Environment Agency
Environment and Heritage Service (Northern Ireland)
Duchas The Heritage Service (Republic of Ireland)
National Trust
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Scottish Natural Heritage
Scottish Executive
Woodland Trust
Forestry Commission
The Welsh Assembly
DEFRA
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