Climate Scenarios
A variety of estimates for future climate scenarios exist and any modelling will be significantly affected by the climate scenario chosen to use in the run.
We use PCM A1, HAD A2 and HAD B1.
The scenarios are made up of the GCM (Global Circulation Model) used and the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) emissions scenario applied.
In our modelling, we used 2 different GCMs:
PCM (Parallel Climate Model) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado - a cool model.
HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model) from the Hadley Centre, UK - a warmer model.
Coupled with the different GCMs, 3 different SRES emissions scenarios are used to reflect different projections of global emissions into the future.
These temperature rise differences can be seen on the graph below showing the emissions scenarios diverge immediately and rapidly from less than today's levels in the B1 to a fourfold increase on todays levels under A1 and A2 by 2100.
 |
